Will Gov. Janet Napolitano and Sen. John McCain go head-to-head in 2010?

Experts and pundits agree that the pairing may be likely. Napolitano, the most prominent Democrat in the state, seems like the only figure with enough clout to challenge McCain, who won his home state in the presidential contest by nine points.

Whether or not the race happens depends on the man who bested McCain nationally, President-elect Barack Obama. If Obama offers and the governor accepts a high post within his administration, observers say Napolitano would be giving up her shot to take on McCain, who is up for re-election in two years.

Patrick Kenney, chairman of the Department of Political Science at Arizona State University, told PolitickerAZ.com he thinks Napolitano would turn down a post in the Obama Administration.

"If she wants to be a senator from Arizona, no, she stays here," said Kenney.

In going to Washington, she would also be leaving the state in the hands of Republican Jan Brewer, Arizona's current secretary of state and a likely gubernatorial candidate when Napolitano terms out in 2010. Brewer, by law, would take over as governor in the case Napolitano vacated the post, making her the incumbent and facing a re-election fight in 2010.

Possibly leaving the state's executive in Republican hands during the post-census redistricting and a presidential race in 2012 may be too big a gamble for Democrats to take.

"I think they're weighing all that stuff," said Kenney of the Obama transition team, of which Napolitano is a member.

He said that it made more sense for Napolitano to remain governor, "unless she has the dream of her life to be attorney general."

Kenney made his comments before news broke Tuesday that Obama named Eric Holder, a former deputy attorney general and Obama adviser, to become the nation's next Attorney General.

Based on the sentiments privately expressed by many Democratic operatives, the news of Holder's appointment brought relief to those worried she might leave.

There was also a hope by some Democrats that McCain would opt not to run, but that was dashed Tuesday with the word that he was reviving his candidate committee, allowing him to raise money for a re-election campaign. Also, McCain and Obama met Monday to discuss mutual objectives and strike a note of bipartisanship, which is widely seen as prefiguring a role for McCain as intermediary between the Obama Administration and the Republican minority in the Senate – offering more incentive for McCain to stay.

Stan Barnes, a Republican strategist in Arizona, says he thinks those are good reasons for the 72-year-old McCain to try for another term.

"Until I hear differently I'll suppose he's going to run again," Barnes said, echoing the sentiments of many in the GOP.

Barnes explained why it would make sense for Arizona's senior senator to continue his congressional career after losing the presidency.

"He has a crossover ability that can make him a deal-maker in the U.S. Senate," Barnes said. "I think he's got a lot of piss and vinegar in him he'd like to expend."

As for Napolitano, Barnes said he thought she'd take a good enough Cabinet post.

"My guess is there are a number of things she'd go to Washington for," he said, besides attorney general. "I don't think this has run its course."

Barnes envisioned a 2010 race where Brewer is the incumbent governor, McCain is running again and "Napolitano is off in Washington, doing her thing."

Kenney, though, doesn't think Napolitano is leaving.

While he agreed with Barnes that McCain could enjoy a prominent place in the Senate and would probably decide to run again, he said a match-up with Napolitano was the favored scenario. Kenney said he makes this argument partially due to the lack of another Democrat ready to fill her place across the ticket from McCain. He added that no Democratic member of Congress, or any other Democrat, is in nearly as good a position to challenge the incumbent senator.

Plus, said Kenney, Napolitano could go to the Cabinet if she lost against McCain. 

If the race does end up between Napolitano and McCain, Kenney predicts it will be a tough fight.

"The dynamics are interesting," he said. "If she decides to run it'll be an extremely intense race - very expensive for both of them."

"[McCain] will have to decide - he'd have to start raising money and hit the campaign trail soon," said Kenney, prior to the news McCain is planning to do just that.

However, he noted, so would Napolitano.