Arizona businesses and consumers are going to keep their money in their pockets until they think it's safe, according to members of a panel of economists. That means spending - and the state tax collections that mirror it - likely won't get back to pre-recession levels for another four years, if then.
The consensus of members of the Finance Advisory Committee is that tax collections this budget year will hit just $7.8 billion. That compares with more than $9.6 billion just two years ago.
Collections will slide even further next year, to just $7.6 billion.
After that, things will get better - but not fast: Tax collections will still be below $8 billion the year after that, and just $8.