[img_assist|nid=1246|title=Congressional candidate Charlie Brown|desc=|link=none|align=right|width=190|height=240]Voter registration figures be darned, the Democratic contender in California's 4th Congressional District believes the race there is winnable.

Political winds blowing toward Democrats in 2008 notwithstanding, the Republican contender is equally bullish on his chances.

Democrat Charlie Brown and Republican state Sen. Tom McClintock, both looking to replace retiring U.S. Rep. John Doolittle (R-Roseville), are aiming sights at each other with the general election still months away.

Last week, Brown criticized McClintock for saying he would campaign with Doolittle, who is stepping down amid a federal investigation into his ties to convicted former lobbyist Jack Abramoff.

But much of the race will center on whether McClintock, who represents a state senate district in Ventura County, is a better fit with the 4th district's voters than Brown, a Roseville resident and former Republican.

McClintock campaign spokesman Stan Devereux believes that's the case.

In ideology, McClintock is in line with the late President Ronald Reagan in terms of believing in smaller government and more personal freedoms, Devereux said.

"Those are the same views as those in the district," he added.

But Brown is a strong supporter of many ideas that resonate with Fourth District voters, including gun rights, a need to do more for veterans and concerns about the war in Iraq, said campaign manager Todd Stenhouse.

"He's the antithesis of a career politician like Tom McClintock, and he's not a prototypical Democrat either," Stenhouse said. "You don't solve problems by ideology."

Neither candidate is unfamiliar to voters. Brown ran against Doolittle in 2006 and lost by three percentage points, while McClintock has made several runs for statewide office and is arguably the state's most high-profile conservative politician.

Those rightward stances play well in the 4th district, where Republicans led Democrats in voter registration by 46 percent to 30 percent in figures released last month.

That and other voter trends in the district are ominous for Brown's chances, said Allan Hoffenblum, who publishes a regular guide to California political races.

Hoffenblum pointed out that in 2006, Republican Dick Mountjoy beat incumbent U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-San Francisco), in that district. Mountjoy barely campaigned that year, while Feinstein is one of the most popular politicians of either party in the state.

Brown also isn't skewing enough to the political center, Hoffenblum said. He pointed out that Tuesday morning Brown was quoted extensively on Calitics, a left-leaning political blog, about his opposition to war-on-terror surveillance legislation passed in Congress this week with the support of Democratic leadership, including Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco).

"If I saw him trying to drive to the center, I'd be more interested in that race," Hoffenblum said. "I don't think Charlie Brown can win as a Democrat."

If Brown is seen as to the left of former Rep. Doug Ose, a moderate who ran and lost a nasty battle against McClintock in the 4th District primary, he can't hope to draw Ose's votes, Hoffenblum said.

The Brown campaign believes that race worked to Brown's benefit because Ose spent millions to cast McClintock in a poor light.

Then again, Devereux said, if that had resonated with voters, his contender then wouldn't be the candidate now.