Recent voter registration numbers in the 78th State Assembly District show Democrats increasing their lead over Republicans, a welcome trend for the party as it looks to pick up an open seat and move closer to a two-thirds majority in the chamber.

Registered Democrats now outnumber Republicans in the San Diego County-based district by over 21,000 voters, representing a 3.77 percent increase in the gap since 2006 (see details below).

Assemblywoman Shirley Horton (R-Chula Vista) has held on to the seat for three terms in the predominantly Democratic district, winning re-election in 2006 with 51 percent of the vote.

With Horton termed out, Democrat Marty Block, former dean of San Diego State University, will face Republican John McCann, a Chula Vista city councilman, for the open seat.

"In 2006, we were challenging a sitting incumbent," said Jess Durfee, chair of the San Diego Democratic Party. "And the big thing is we've expanded that voter registration base. There's a significant portion of the 78th that is made up of communities of color, and I think having an African American at the top of the ticket will drive a higher turnout than we otherwise might see."

Republican officials remain optimistic despite the inherent disadvantages. "It's always been a Democratic district, but with the right candidate and a strong campaign we held it in each of the last three elections," said Barrett Tetlow, political director of the San Diego County Republican Party.

Tetlow was encouraged by a boost in Republican enthusiasm following Sarah Palin's emergence on the national scene as John McCain’s vice presidential running mate. "We've seen an increase in Republican registration in the past month or so," he said. "And we also have a superior get-out-the-vote operation. It'll stay Republican."

Registered Voters in the 78th State Assembly District (Oct. 2006)

• Republicans: 73,912 (34.75%)
• Democrats: 86,973 (40.89%)
• Decline-to-state: 42,961 (20.2%)
• Total Registered Voters: 212,687

Registered Voters in the 78th State Assembly District (Aug. 2008)

• Republicans: 69,947 (32.43%)
• Democrats: 91,308 (42.34%)
• Decline-to-state: 45,835 (21.25%)
• Total Registered Voters: 215,651