SACRAMENTO - The sliding economy and other factors are giving a lift to Democrats in key legislative races that are coming down to the wire, according to consultants working with those races.

In polls that ask whether likely voters would vote for a generic Democrat or Republican in five state Assembly districts with open seats, Democrats get the nod in all five.

What's more, in two seats held by Republicans - Assembly Districts 38 and 63 - a generic Democrat vs. Republican race is a dead heat, according to the consultants, who hosted a background briefing for reporters Tuesday.

However, the consultants stopped short of saying they expect a tidal wave similar to 1974, when the Watergate scandal led to more than 50 Democrats in the state Assembly being elected. Just getting to 50, they said, would be good enough.

Democrats now control 48 seats, to 32 held by Republicans. If Democrats could get 54, they would have a two-thirds majority that would give them the ability to decide pass all bills, including ones related to the budget and taxes, without Republican votes in the Assembly.

Though the consultants would not say which seats they're pushing most to win, districts 15, 78 and 80 seemed to occupy much of their optimism.

In all three, said campaign consultant Steve Barkan, Democrats have gained or extended a registration lead since the last general election in 2006.

In 15, where Democrat Joan Buchanan is trying to replace termed-out Assemblyman Guy Houston (R-Dublin), Democrats have gained 4.65 percentage points over Republicans since 2006, when the growth in Democratic party registration is added to the decline among Republicans.

Barkan said 15 in particular is also competitive because Democrats believe Buchanan is a good candidate and party turnout has been high there in primary elections this year.

Assembly District 78, another district with a termed-out Republican in Assemblywoman Shirley Horton (R-Chula Vista), has seen a 4.11 percentage-point gain, and Assembly District 80, where Assemblywoman Bonnie Garcia (R-Cathedral City) is termed out, has seen a 2.54 percentage-point gain for Democrats.

Democrats were also encouraged by numbers trending in their favor in both Assembly Districts 10 and 26, which also have termed-out Republicans.

Barkan said party campaign strategists were surprised by the possible competitiveness of districts 37 and 63, which are held by Republicans Audra Strickland (R-Moorpark) and Bill Emmerson (R-Redlands). If likely voters continue to see the parties on an even par there, Barkan said, those incumbents could be in trouble on Nov. 4.

The only Democrat-held seat the consultants thought could be in trouble is Assembly District 30, where termed-out incumbent Nicole Parra (D-Hanford) has bucked her party to endorse Republican Danny Gilmore of Hanford.

The consultants said they believe Democratic candidate Fran Florez is likely to keep that seat because she's a stronger candidate with deep roots in the district as the mayor of Shafter.

They also showed a campaign commercial that pointed out how Gilmore and Parra spent millions attacking each other in the 2006 race, but now are "blowing kisses to each other" and giving voters a "political baloney sandwich."

Barkan and ground operations consultant Mike Riley indicated that keeping Assembly District 30 was also one of their top goals in this election cycle.

Neither anger over the budget impasse or a higher conservative turnout to vote for Proposition 8 have so far seemed to affect Democratic candidates in those races, Riley and Barkan said.

It's too soon to know, they said, whether Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama will have a direct impact on close races. While his candidacy helped spur registration numbers for Democrats, they said, it's possible some voters will head to the polls to cast a vote for him in the presidential race, but otherwise leave ballots blank.

Speaking after the briefing, Barkan said three trends have pushed Democratic numbers since 2006.

"I think we can thank George W. Bush for a lot of it," he said, explaining that voter dissatisfaction with the president helped registration two years ago.

Since then, first the slate of strong Democratic presidential candidates, followed by Obama's rise, have kept the party's numbers growing, Barkan said. In recent weeks, the soured economy has been the main factor.

"You've seen a 4 to 5 point gain for Obama recently, and there have been similar gain for the Democrats as things have gotten more chaotic with the economy," Barkan said.

But three weeks from the election, Barkan added, there is still time for trends to change.

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