Last week, the campaign of Democratic congressional candidate Nick Leibham turned some heads with an internal poll that showed him trailing U.S. Rep. Brian Bilbray (R-Carlsbad) by only two points.

Monday, the firm that conducted the poll, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, followed up with a detailed memo explaining why the survey's results prove that Leibham can win the conservative-leaning 50th Congressional District. The firm also argued that Leibham, a San Diego area attorney, has a better shot than former Democratic challenger Francine Busby, who narrowly lost to Bilbray in a June 2006 special election to replace disgraced Congressman Randy "Duke" Cunningham.

In the memo, pollsters Ben Tulchin and Ron Eckstein emphasized the significance of the top of the ticket, where the poll had Barack Obama leading John McCain 53 percent to 41 percent in the same district that President Bush won by 11 points in both 2000 and 20004.

"Obama's large lead stands in direct contrast to the June 2006 election, which was a low turnout primary that only offered Democrats a low-energy gubernatorial campaign," argue Tulchin and Eckstein. In fact, that election "had the lowest turnout in a statewide primary election in the history of California." This year, the pollsters estimate that turnout in the 50th will reach 80 percent, nearly double the turnout from the 2006 special election.

The memo also highlighted Democrat gains in voter registration, though Republicans still hold a 10 point advantage. Leibham can neutralize this deficit, argued the pollsters, by trouncing Bilbray among independents. The recent survey had Leibham winning decline-to-state voters by 16 points.

The pollsters also touted their experience working on California campaigns, including Congressman Jerry McNerney's upset bid in 2006. "Having led the charge last cycle against the then incumbent Republican Congressman Richard Pombo in CA-11, we have experience in knocking off incumbent Republicans in California," the memo reads. "Our polling was very accurate in that race and we identified the upset well before most people had. The pattern that has emerged in California's 50th Congressional District this year is very similar to what happened last cycle in 2006."

However, some neutral observers remain skeptical. "I still think a 10 point registration disadvantage is too large to overcome," said Gary Jacobson, a professor at University of California-San Diego and an expert on congressional elections. Jacobson noted that "in Pombo's district, the Republican advantage was 5.6 points."

Jacobson also predicted that Obama was more likely to win the district by two points than the double digit margin the poll showed. "If Obama does win by 12," Jacobson conceded, "then I think Liebham would win, because it would suggest a huge turnout advantage for the Democrats."

"If there is a huge wave of support for Democrats across the country, it is possible Leibham can ride in on the tide," concluded Jacobson. "I will still believe it when I see it."

ELSEWHERE on PolitickerCA.com:

• Internal Leibham poll shows dead heat in CA-50
• Leibham crushes Bilbray in 3Q fundraising
• Leibham looks to ride anti-Republican tidal wave on back of relentless ground game
• Leibham campaign sees success with veterans ad
• DCCC adds Leibham to 'Red to Blue'
• Republicans maintain double-digit lead among registered voters in CA-50