SACRAMENTO - Republicans face a tough future in California, based on results from last Tuesday's election, according to two of the state's most respected pollsters.

Speaking at a press luncheon, Mark Baldassare of the Public Policy Institute of California and Mark DiCamillo of the Field Poll said both polling and Election Day results show a GOP that's disconnected from the three fastest-growing groups of voters: Latinos, decline-to-states and youth.

"The question is whether the size of Obama's win is a permanent trend and whether the Republicans are still going to be a viable party in this state," DiCamillo said.

Both pollsters agreed that the presidential race, and particularly excitement around Democratic candidate Barack Obama, drew in far more voters than normal and contributed to a phenomenal surge in turnout in California.

DiCamillo said that total turnout looks to be near 80 percent, and higher in some Democratic-leaning counties such as Contra Costa, Los Angeles and Marin.

That translated into support in California for Obama that outstripped even normal lean toward a Democrat, DiCamillo said. He said a reliable formula used to be that any Democratic presidential candidate would be 10 points better in California than nationally, but that might be too low now.

Obama will win the state by as much as 24 points, he noted.

Baldassare said what was remarkable was not only Obama's support in traditionally strong Democratic areas in the state, but even some Republican strongholds.

"A Democratic presidential candidate carried the Orange County/San Diego area, and I didn't think I'd see that in my lifetime," said Baldassare.

He also debunked other myths going into the election, such as that California voters are apathetic (debunked by turnout), that cell phone users were a "stealth" factor in polls (results of a poll targeted to cell phone users scarcely differed from traditional polls), and that women and Latinos would shy away from voting for Obama (both groups backed him over Republican John McCain).

Both men also said there are also some misconceptions about why Proposition 8, the other big driver to this year's polls statewide, passed voter approval.

Though polls on Prop. 8 showed it trailing in the weeks before the election, Baldassare said, polls that asked the generic question, "Should gay men and women be able to get married?" showed only 47 percent support.

Proposition 8, which banned gay marriage, had 48 percent in opposition. Baldassare noted that there was a similar trend with that question on polls in 2000 and the results of that year's Proposition 22, which also addressed gay marriage.

DiCamillo said media reports following the race also overstated other trends on Prop. 8, such as African-Americans voting for it and for Obama.

One exit poll showed that African-Americans made up 10 percent of the Nov. 4 electorate in California, he said, but that's statistically impossible when they only constitute about 6 percent of the state's population and 6 percent of all registered voters.

Because of the strong young voter turnout, he said, "Barack Obama's presence on the ballot did more to make the measure close than it did to widen the gap."

What made people vote for Prop. 8, he said, had more to do with their own moral compass or religious views than their party affiliation.

He noted that polling showed Catholics as a group split over the measure, but that they largely seemed to break in favor of the measure on Election Day.

"I never underestimate the final Sunday before an election on issues like that," he said.

DiCamillo also said he saw signs of a media bias in the campaign's closing weeks, but not really in favor of one candidate.

Rather, he said, media outlets continually reported each and every poll as if they also suggested something different, because suggesting change in the race was more interesting.

"The sheer volume of polls, as disseminated by the media, ended up confusing the public rather than edifying the public," he said.

The two men also noted that despite Obama's strong performance in California, it didn't translate into a surge of support down ballot, as some state Democrats had hoped.

"I think it had more to do with voter registration than the candidate," Baldassare said, adding that Proposition 11, which was opposed by Democrats, could ironically give them more strength if there are more competitive districts in California.