December 4, 2008 - 02:53

Poll: Evangelicals and Republicans drove Prop. 8's success at ballot box

SAN FRANCISCO - Evangelical Christians and Republicans teamed together to drive Prop. 8  -- the ballot measure that banned gay marriage in California -- to victory on Nov. 4, a new poll by the Public Policy Institute of California shows.

Majorities of Latinos, voters without a college degree, and those age 55 and older also backed the measure, which passed by a 4-point margin (52 percent ‘yes,' 48 percent ‘no.')

"...Californians have been closely divided on the issue of same-sex marriage for the last three years," Mark Baldassare, PPIC president and CEO said in a statement. "Prop. 8 had highly motivated supporters and a well-funded campaign, and in the end, they prevailed."

The poll, which was released late Wednesday night, revealed:

  • Evangelical or born-again Christians (85 percent) were far more likely than others (42 percent) to vote ‘yes.'
     
  • Three in four Republicans (77 percent) voted ‘yes,' two in three Democrats (65 percent) voted ‘no,' and independents were more closely divided (52 percent ‘yes,' 48 percent ‘no.')
     
  • Supporters of Republican presidential candidate John McCain were far more likely than those who backed President-elect Barack Obama to vote yes (85 percent vs. 30 percent).
     
  • Latinos (61 percent) were more likely than whites (50 percent) to vote yes; and 57 percent of Latinos, Asians, and blacks combined voted yes. (Samples sizes for Asians and blacks are too small to report separately.)
     
  • Voters without a college degree (62 percent) were far more likely than college graduates (43 percent) to vote yes.
     
  • While most voters (65 percent) consider the outcome of Prop. 8 to be very important, the measure's supporters (74 percent) are far more likely than those who voted no (59 percent) to view the outcome as very important.

When voters are asked the separate question of whether they favor or oppose gay marriage, they are divided, with 47 percent in favor, 48 percent opposed, and 5 percent unsure --  a result that mirrored responses recorded by PPIC in an October pre-election poll.

The reason that voters most frequently cite in voting for Prop. 8 is that marriage between only a man and a woman should be recognized (63 percent); Sixteen percent mention religious objections. Most Californians who voted no (70 percent) say they did so because gay couples should be given the freedoms and rights guaranteed to everyone.

Findings are based on a telephone survey of 2,003 California voters in the Nov. 4 election who were interviewed from Nov. 5-16, 2008. The margin of error was listed as being plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Jeff Mitchell is a PolitickerCA.com Editor and can be reached via email at noreply@politicker.com.

Related topics: Prop. 8, Gay MArriage

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