Tonight when the four Republicans who are trying to replace retiring Tom Tancredo square off at the Southridge Recreation Center in the first of PolitickerCO’s sponsored debates, each will emphasize a theme that will likely set the tone for the rest of the campaign. In this debate preview we’ll take a look at each of the candidates, what they are likely to say and how we think it may play.

Wil Armstrong

What he’ll say: “I’m not a politician. If you like what government has done the last twenty years then vote for the other guys because they are responsible for it. But if you want real change from a businessman who knows how to get things done then I’m your guy.”

What he really means: “My dad was a US Senator and a hero of the conservative movement. If you like what he was about then you will certainly like me.”

How we think it will play: “He’s a nice guy and I really liked his dad, but I don’t know that he’s ready to do the job in Congress yet.”

Mike Coffman

What he’ll say: “I’m the most experienced of the bunch. I’ve run close races and won without selling out my principles. I’ve been to Iraq and served my nation and Colorado honorably. I understand the issues at stake in Congress.”

What he really means: “Listen, when the GOP asked me to bow out of the Governor’s race, I did it. I don’t care about the Secretary of State office. It was just a way for me to run for something until something else better came along. The Party owes me this seat in Congress.”

How it will play: “I like Mike, but I hate to lose the Secretary of State office to the Dems if Mike wins.”

Ted Harvey

What he’ll say: “I’m the most conservative of the bunch. If you liked what Tom Tancredo did then you have to vote for me. I’m supported by the most right wing special interests, including pro-life groups and pro-gun groups. Consequently, I’ll be Nancy Pelosi’s worst nightmare”

What he really means: “The GOP owes me this. God has foreordained it that I go to Congress to smite the enemies of the Conservative movement. Anyone not behind my candidacy is an enemy of God.”

How it will play: “The only way that Harvey ends up as Nancy Pelosi’s worst nightmare is if Pelosi starts to have wet dreams about him. Ted’s a good guy, but he’s really immature.”

Steve Ward

What he’ll say: “I’ve been to Iraq and Afghanistan. I have an energy policy. There are problems with all of the other candidates, which I will point out.”

What he really means: “Dick Wadhams asked me to run against Coffman because I’m the only other politician in the district who can counter Coffman’s military experience.”

How it will play: “Why is this guy even running?”

What? The 6th CD debate. Where? The Southridge Rec Center, 4800 MacArthur Ranch Rd, Highlands Ranch 80130. When? Tonight at 7 PM.