Sixth Congressional District Republican candidate Wil Armstrong's manager predicted Wednesday that the CO-6 GOP primary will be decided by a margin of only “a few hundred votes" between Armstrong and primary opponent Mike Coffman.

That’s a lot closer than the Coffman camp’s forecast: consultant Sean Tonner told Roll Call last week that Coffman would win by 10 percentage points on August 12.

But Armstrong's campaign released an internal poll Tuesday that shows Coffman leading Armstrong 33.8 percent to 32.5 percent. The poll, conducted between July 22-28, has a reported margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.

State Sens. Ted Harvey (R-Highlands Ranch) and Steve Ward (R-Littleton) were well behind Armstrong and Coffman in the CO-6 GOP survey, polling 11 percent and 8.4 percent, respectively.

Armstrong manager Jack Stansbery compared Tuesday's numbers to an internal Coffman campaign poll released last month showing the Colorado Secretary of State with a 28-point lead over Armstrong.

Since June, Stansbery said, a steady stream of advertisements and campaigning has improved Armstrong’s name ID, helping the Greenwood Village businessman to win over undecided voters and close the gap with Coffman.

Armstrong campaign polling at the beginning of July showed about 40 percent of CO-6 GOP voters were undecided, Stansbery said; Tuesday’s poll showed the number of undecideds had dwindled to just over 14 percent.

But Stansbery predicted Armstrong’s support would level off through the August 12 primary and said Coffman’s support would likely remain steady as well.

"I expect the race to be decided only by a few hundred votes,"Stansbery said. "I expect a dead heat."

Coffman manager Dustin Zvonek didn’t share Stansbery’s confidence that the primary would be quite so close.

"I don’t think it’s going to come down to a few hundred votes," Zvonek said. "But I don’t know if I’m in the business of making predictions."

Armstrong is holding a fundraiser Wednesday evening with former U.S. Senator and 1996 GOP vice-presidential nominee Jack Kemp in Greewood Village. Admission to the reception is a $250 minimum campaign donation to the Armstrong campaign, Stansbery said.

Ballot                          Raw                 %

Ted Harvey                 186                  11.0

Steve Ward                 141                  8.4

Wil Armstrong            548                  32.5

Mike Coffman            570                  33.8

Undecided                  239                  14.2    

n = 1684           MoE = 2.38%