A diagnosis of the House Republicans' 2008 ailments

Searching for a cure for what has so far proved a fatal disease, several top Republican consultants argued their party's candidates must run as independent brands and shed the party label that has become so traumatized.

The advice, contained in a report to a new board overseeing activities at the National Republican Congressional Committee, came at the request of top House Republicans following three special elections which saw Republican candidates lose for political, personal and geographic reasons. The larger issue, though, is simply that the Republican Party is viewed worse than at virtually any other time in history.

Results in all three elections indicated not only a problem within the Republican method of running campaigns, but suggested a path forward in order to avoid a complete catastrophe, the consultants argued. And while that path will be difficult both for Republican incumbents and challengers, it could be the only way to prevent losses so severe that the GOP will find itself in a state akin to the "permanent minority" status it suffered through after Watergate.

The consultants, who acted as auditors after special election losses in Illinois, Louisiana and Mississippi, found that not only did the Republican candidate in each race fail to meet certain criteria, but that the underlying political environment made defeat, even in three heavily GOP seats, a distinct probability. In each case, auditors found, "[t]raditional Republican messages essentially did not work in these campaigns."

The bottom line, NRCC spokeswoman Julie Shutley said, is that Republicans this year need to find their own strategy. "Campaigns aren't once size fits all. But there are certainly national themes, like the price of gas, energy and food, that Republicans can win on by orchestrating our local candidates to build on those themes in their individual districts," Shutley said.

That hasn't always happened this year. Republicans may have suspected something was wrong when their candidate, businessman Jim Oberweis, lost a March 8 special election to replace former Speaker Dennis Hastert in Illinois. Running for Congress after losing three statewide elections, Oberweis' quest for the Aurora-based 14th Congressional District fell short because he was viewed as the incumbent, auditors said, in a district in which President Bush was seen unfavorably by more than 60 percent of voters.

Too, the Democratic winner, Bill Foster, got a significant boost from an advertisement featuring Barack Obama near the height of Illinois' infatuation with their U.S. senator in the midst of a heated presidential primary battle. John McCain showed up for a fundraiser, but did not cut an advertisement for Oberweis, leaving voters with the impression of a "change" versus "status quo" election. Oberweis, seen as the status quo, had almost lost from the start. Republicans lost the seat thanks to political problems that were simply too great to overcome.

Two months later, Republican Woody Jenkins lost the Baton Rouge-based 6th Congressional District for reasons less personal than political. Jenkins, who had also lost three previous statewide elections, had a combative reputation after a long history in Louisiana politics, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee attempted to tie Jenkins to white supremacist David Duke, though that tie was tenuous, at best.

Despite the underfunded Jenkins campaign, the NRCC played hard in the district, essentially matching overall Democratic spending. Still, the NRCC auditors concluded, "Jenkins was an unacceptable candidate to a significant portion of the electorate from the beginning." Jenkins lost because he was, well, Woody Jenkins.

Having already seen two of their seats go by the wayside, Republicans were convinced the worst was over. But in early June, Prentiss County Chancery Clerk Travis Childers, another conservative Democrat, beat Republican Greg Davis by a slim margin in a northern Mississippi seat, finally spurring the NRCC to significant action.

The problem in Mississippi was geographical, and led Republicans to rethink their strategy of getting involved in primaries. Davis beat out Glenn McCullough in the special election primary, though McCullough, who hailed from Tupelo, had a base in the more voter-rich part of the district. Tupelo was Childers' base as well, and in the runoff, Childers pulled more votes from his eastern part of the district than Davis, who hailed from Southaven in the Memphis suburbs, managed from the western half. NRCC chairman Tom Cole maintains a policy of avoiding getting involved in primaries, even if it will produce a better nominee against Democrats, though now that policy has shown signs of being rethought.

Lessons from all three campaigns go beyond the political, the personal and the geographic, though. In each case, Republicans tried to tie their Democratic rivals to national Democratic leaders, most notably House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Obama. ("Our candidates are trying to turn those [races] into, now, referendums on Pelosi and Obama," Cole told The Hill in late April). But both Cazayoux and Childers, the Democrats in Louisiana and Mississippi, ran as conservatives within their party. And as well-known local elected officials, charges that they were liberals simply didn't stick.

With a Republican Party so loathed among the general public, those associations were not the negative it had once been. "Nationalizing these elections as a choice between a traditional Republican and a traditional Democrat did not work in this political environment," consultants wrote.

And in all three cases, primaries without clear guidance from national Republicans in Washington produced splintered parties. Oberweis' and Jenkins' fellow Republicans did not offer their endorsements after losing the primaries, while McCullough offered only the most tepid statement of support to the Republican ticket as a whole, without specifically saying Davis' name. Since the losses, though, Republican leaders have made clear, through their donations, which candidates they prefer. That's resulted in a stronger Republican candidate in Texas' 22nd Congressional District, and GOP leaders have made moves towards several other top candidates in Kansas and New Hampshire.

Shutley, of the NRCC, said the contributions, which have come from Cole's and others' personal PACs instead of the NRCC, do not constitute an endorsement. "There's been a number of times where his personal committee has given money to candidates involved in primaries," Shutley said. "As far as an NRCC stance, that hasn't changed since the beginning of the year."

Beyond assisting their candidates more than they have in the past, NRCC consultants virtually urged the national party to leave the locals alone. All three special election losers did little to establish their own brand beyond attacking their Democratic rivals; in the future, auditors said, that had to change. "Encourage Republican candidates to establish themselves in a personal manner emphasizing local issues whenever possible," the report recommends.

But perhaps most strikingly, Republicans now recognize that the very issues matrix they have lived by -- that is, the ways in which Republicans define themselves and their Democratic rivals -- is no longer working. "Work to develop an issues matrix that is different than in years past and also shows a deep empathy towards voters," the report recommends.

This year's Republican candidates should learn something from the audit, Shutley said. "In this kind of electoral environment, you really need to take your campaign and you need to personalize it," she advised. Instead of running as a cookie-cutter Republican, casting oneself as a perfect fit for the district is more important than ever.

While the Republican brand suffers a disease that has proven terminal in three elections this year, a cure has been prescribed. Whether that cure works, or whether the plague continues to claim victims, will depend on how accurate the medicine is, and, no matter if they like it or not, whether the patients are assiduous in their commitment to getting better.

Reid Wilson, national columnist for Politicker.com, is also an associate editor of RealClearPolitics.com and covers Senate, House and governors' races at PoliticsNation.com. Contact him at reid@realclearpolitics.com.