With national Democrats having outspend their House GOP counterparts by a ratio of 100-1 or more, the National Republican Congressional Committee has finally launched their first ad buys of the cycle, coordinating with mail programs targeting vulnerable members of both parties. The trouble is, it may already be too late.
As the economy rockets to the front of voters' minds, Republicans find themselves at a distinct disadvantage. A full 59 percent say economic issues are the most important ones facing the country right now according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, a higher percentage of the population agreeing on one topic than most pollsters can remember at any other given time.
Even as most Republicans cast votes against the first incarnation of the emergency economic stabilization legislation, a measure which proved so highly unpopular that most congressional offices reported constituent calls about the legislation running at 100 to 1 against, the GOP still trails Democrats when voters are asked which party they trust most to handle the economy.
In some places, supporting the bailout legislation was smart politics. Connecticut Rep. Christopher Shays and Illinois Rep. Mark Kirk, both Republicans, represent wealthy districts in which a large portion of their electorate stood to benefit, or at least stem losses. Nevada Rep. Jon Porter's district features one of, if not the, highest rates of residential foreclosure in the nation.
In others, a no vote was more politically intelligent, and a large percentage of endangered members on both the Democrats' Frontline and the Republicans' ROMP Programs opposed the first measure. Many, but by no means all, of those members voted instead for the second iteration, which passed on Friday by a wider margin than expected.
But the dramatics on the House and Senate floors put more than a few members, mostly Republicans, in difficult situations. More importantly, and perhaps more devastating to the party's hopes in November, the daily roller coaster of bad economic news and a diving Dow Jones Industrial Average has made the economy the guaranteed issue over which this election will be decided.
In districts ranging from Shays' wealthy New York City suburbs to the Black Belt of Alabama and the high desert of New Mexico and Nevada, that's bad news for Republicans struggling to hold on to crucial House seats. While John McCain and GOP leaders have been trying to subtley but obviously break with the president, economic conditions have forced the hopelessly unpopular President Bush back to the fore. Regardless of the fact that Democrats have controlled Congress for the past two years, voters still overwhelmingly blame Bush for the poor economic conditions they face today.
Changing that narrative is going to prove difficult for the National Republican Congressional Committee. Both committees have reserved millions in air time in districts across the country. Democrats are targeting more than fifty districts, while Republicans have asked stations to set aside time in about half that number.
Republicans are doing their best to change the narrative. While Democrats are largely blasting GOP candidates on Social Security privatization, rampant deregulation and other economic issues, NRCC advertisements and mail programs are hitting Democrats on intensely local issues. In Alabama, one candidate is slamming another for allegedly mistreating cancer patients. In Michigan, a Democratic challenger is feeling the heat for his votes on tax measures in the state senate.
But only a few overriding themes can apply to several districts and favor Republicans. The NRCC and GOP candidates are slapping Democratic incumbents over their association with New York Rep. Charlie Rangel, who won earmarks for controversial projects in his district. Rangel's recent tax troubles are not what gets voters excited. How many voters in Wisconsin Rep. Steve Kagen's district, where the NRCC is dropping mail on the subject, know who the chair of the House Ways and Means Committee is anyway? What may resonate is that Kagen voted for an earmark granting $2 million for a library that bears Rangel's name.
Other Republicans have hit both incumbents and challenger Democrats over the issue of off-shore oil drilling. Throughout the summer, the GOP worked hard to put the drilling issue front and center as gas prices climbed above $4 a gallon. But unlike earmarks for political benefactors, which has a much longer bipartisan shelf-life, drilling and energy costs have waned as a political issue as oil prices have dropped along with the sagging economy.
Instead, Democrats can use a broad brush to paint their GOP opponents as out of touch on the economy. And the DCCC is using their monetary advantage to swamp the GOP. Democrats have dropped mail or television in 46 districts, and have spent more than $100,000 in 37 races.
According to Federal Elections Commission reports filed Wednesday, the NRCC has outspent Democrats in only two districts -- Michigan's Seventh, held by GOP Rep. Tim Walberg, where the NRCC is spending $1.3 million, and Idaho's First, held by GOP Rep. Bill Sali, where both committees have only spent a small amount of money. Republicans have spent more than six figures in just four districts.
The 2006 elections largely focused on Republican failures, be they in Iraq, on runaway federal spending or any of the myriad ethics charges that plagued the complacent and stagnant majority. Democrats had the outline of a platform, proposing six general areas in which they would make reforms. Few races, though, hinged on the party's "Six in '06" cries.
This year, few expected Republicans to once again provide such inviting targets, and the newly-minted minority have not, to both their credit and their detriment, played a major role in their own political futures. Instead, the economy's dramatic twists and turns have left Democrats with the far more inviting target of President Bush and largely swamped all other national issues.
Democrats benefited from a nationalized election in 2006, and by all appearances, they will again. The GOP, which has so far focused their limited ad spending to local issues, finds itself once again, perhaps irreparably, on defense.
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