MINNEAPOLIS – The last public polling in Kentucky’s 3rd Congressional District contest between incumbent U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D-Louisville) and former U.S. Rep. Anne Northup (R-Louisville) found Northup cutting Yarmuth’s lead from 17 to 10 points. Now, a month after the latest polling, Kentucky Republicans say Northup has a tough race ahead of her to regain the seat she lost from Yarmuth in 2006

“Anne’s got a much more difficult race than (state Sen.) Brett (Guthrie) does because of Jefferson County, not because of her opponent,” said U.S. Sen. Jim Bunning (R-Southgate), briefly referencing Guthrie’s (R-Bowling Green) bid for the 2nd district.

“Its 68 percent Democrat,” said Bunning of the 3rd District. “It’s much more difficult for Anne to recapture that seat.”

Bunning said that he had contributed $10,000 from his political action committee to Northup for her effort.
As an incumbent, Northup lost to Yarmuth two years ago, when Democrats made gains across the country due to what many analysts point to as national discontent over the war in Iraq.

“We certainly hope that Anne would be elected again,” said RNC Committeewoman Gail Russell. “She got caught up in the 2006 whirlwind about the war.”

“The people in Jefferson County really realize what kind of a positive influence that she brought back to the district,” added Russell.

One local Louisville elected Republican said the cut into Yarmuth’s lead was attributable to campaign efforts by Northup that may be under the radar.

“You don’t see a whole lot other than every once in a while a little blip on the commercial side,” said Metro Louisville councilman Kevin Fleming. “I think it shows her tenacity and her understanding of the community in Jefferson County about working things on a grassroots level that you are starting to see those upticks in those polls.”

On the fundraising front, Northup’s campaign showed some success by outraising Yarmuth in the 2nd quarter. The incumbent, however, holds more cash-on-hand.