November 12, 2008 - 19:21
News: Kentucky

Presidential voting shifts evident in Appalachian counties and elsewhere

Much can be said after looking at the Presidential returns from last week's general election in Kentucky. While President-elect Barack Obama won a solid victory nationwide, Republican nominee John McCain won the Commonwealth by over 16 points - a resounding show of Republican strength in the face of Democratic gains elsewhere.

Breaking down the numbers, however, provides evidence that may give a moral boost to both parties.

While examining countywide shifts in voting, it is clear the Appalachian region in eastern Kentucky largely flocked away from the Democratic presidential nominee, bucking the trend of some solid support there for Democratic nominees in years past.

Examining data maps available from the New York Times accounting for preliminary results, the partisan shift on the Presidential level in the Appalachian region of the state is evident. In 2004, Democratic nominee John Kerry, of Massachusetts, collected a handful of eastern Kentucky counties, including Pike, Floyd, and Carter. Obama, however, was largely shut out in the far Eastern counties, scraping out a lead in Elliott and Rowan counties but losing in traditional Democratic pick-ups like Floyd and Pike.

Pike swung sharply to McCain's side in a 19 point shift from 2004. That trend was duplicated throughout the area, with Republican totals skyrocketing as Democratic returns were minimal. Harlan County stayed Republican, but McCain's take there was 25 points higher then President George W. Bush's in 2004. Floyd, meanwhile, went Republican for the first time in decades, awarding a one point margin to McCain after favoring Kerry in 2004 by 25 points.

During Kerry's 2004 loss - when he did not take Kentucky - his cluster of eastern Kentucky success was only supplemented by a win in Jefferson - the county containing heavily-populated and urban Louisville. Kerry took no other counties, for a total of 12.

Obama collected the fewest counties by a Democrat in three election cycles, with just eight. At the same time, however, Obama collected the highest vote total for a Democratic nominee in the state among all recorded totals available on the Secretary of State's website, dating to 1974.

Obama's raw vote total of over 746,000 topped even the vote total in the Commonwealth garnered by former President Bill Clinton when he took Kentucky in 1996 and 1992.

Of course, McCain was boosted to a total of over 1,043,000 votes. Just short of the total Bush won in 2004, McCain nonetheless saw growing Republican support in counties in the east and far western counties as well as noticeable boosts in some central and southern counties.

While losing most of the 120 counties in the state, Obama picked up Fayette County - the home of Lexington and the University of Kentucky - for the first time for Democrats since 1996. Fayette favored Obama by five points after going for Bush in 2004 by seven points.

Obama also won two western Kentucky counties in Henderson and Hancock, turning them from the Republican column. Bush took Henderson by 13 in 2004, though Obama won there by 3. The scenario was similar in Hancock, which went to the Democratic side by 5 this year after going to Bush in 2004 by 14 points.

While those areas - and the east in particular - darted to McCain as opposed to Obama, large swaths of the state saw Democratic gains - though not wins - amid the state's highest numerical turnout in history.

In Hardin County -  about 40 miles south of Louisville - McCain won by 21 points, at 60 to 39 percent. Still, Obama boosted the Democratic share there, narrowing his party's losing margin from 2004 by 15 points. Kerry lost in Hardin by 36 points.

Obama also boosted the Democratic lead in Jefferson County by 10 points, winning there by 12 percent.

Trey Pollard is a PolitickerKY.com Reporter and can be reached via email at noreply@politicker.com.

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