I love a good poll as much as any political junkie would be expected to, but the Rasmussen poll numbers for Maine are a bit over the top.
This week Mr. Rasmussen let us know that Obama is ahead by 22% over his opponent John McCain here in Maine. The poll states, "According to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Maine voters, Obama now leads his Republican opponent 55% to 33%. In May, Obama enjoyed a 51% to 38% lead, but a month earlier was only ahead by eight points."
Huh?
In 2004, in the match-up Kerry versus Bush, Kerry won by 9 points and in 2000, Gore defeated Bush by 5 points.
I'm guessing that Obama over McCain by 22 points is a little off. I could be wrong - the Obama wave could actually have him running that strong here in Maine. However, these numbers would go against conventional wisdom, where Maine has tended to support or at least be supportive of moderates over the ideological ends of either party.
The impression I have been left with is that McCain is a "maverick" and a centrist. The early support of Senators Snowe and Collins, as well as Senator Lieberman has supported that notion. His consistent tough talk on the Iraq war could certainly hurt that image.
Obama, on the other hand, is a fairly reliable liberal. His peeches, however, clearly connect well with the voters -- and not just liberals. If the Rasmussen numbers are to be believed, then it means that Obama's rhetoric of "Hope, change and turn the page" is working with Maine's middle of the road voters.
It is worth noting, that twenty-two points is not an impossible number to reach, Ronald Reagan won Maine in 1984 with 61 to 39 trouncing of Walter Mondale.
Is Barack Obama the next Ronald Reagan? Is John McCain the next Walter Mondale?
One thing is certain - June polls in an election year are nothing like October polls.
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