PolitickerME.com has evaluated all 151 state House ratings by looking at the candidates, their histories and past results. We also spoke with people close to the process.
Click on the links for a county-by-county assessment:
ANDROSCOGGIN COUNTY | AROOSTOOK COUNTY | CUMBERLAND COUNTY | FRANKLIN COUNTY | HANCOCK COUNTY | KENNEBEC COUNTY | KNOX COUNTY | LINCOLN COUNTY | OXFORD COUNTY | PENOBSCOT COUNTY | PISCATAQUIS COUNTY | SAGADAHOC COUNTY | SOMERSET COUNTY | WALDO COUNTY | WASHINGTON COUNTY | YORK COUNTY
Click here for an overall evaluation.
Cumberland County
House District 63 – Safe Democrat: Incumbent Charles Priest (D-Brunswick) is running unopposed.
H.D. 66 – Likely Democrat: Incumbent Stan Gerzofsky (D-Brunswick) is running for the Senate, opening up a three-way race between Alex Cornell du Houx (D-Brunswick), Jonathan Crimmins (R-Brunswick) and David Frans (G-Brunswick). Cornell du Houx has a bit of a disadvantage, as he was on active duty with the military for part of the campaign. However, this is a very Democratic district and he should win easily.
H.D. 98 – Safe Republican: Incumbent Richard Sykes (R-Harrison) won by about 500 votes in 2006, and will likely win his fourth term against Megan Ann Crawford (D-Harrison) by an even wider margin.
H.D. 99 – Safe Republican: Incumbent Ralph Sarty (R-Denmark) won in a 2007 special election -- events that usually favor Democrats -- so he should have no trouble winning the general election against Lee Goldsberry (D-Cornish).
H.D. 101 – Safe Republican: Incumbent Richard Cebra (R-Naples) won by about 500 votes in 2006 and should do well in his race against James Krainin (D-Naples).
H.D. 102 – Safe Democrat: This race presents an odd situation. Incumbent Gary Moore (R-Standish) abandoned his reelection bid and moved out of the district, leaving Michael Shaw (D-Standish) unopposed. However, Moore dropped out too late to have his name removed from the ballot, so while there are two names on the ballot, Shaw is technically unopposed.
H.D. 103 – Likely Republican: Incumbent John Robinson (R-Raymond) faces Buffy Morrissette (D-Poland). Robinson has strong name identification in his district, and has been working hard in hopes of winning a leadership position in the next Legislature. Morrissette is also working hard, however, this is a Republican district which heavily favors Robinson.
H.D. 106 – Safe Democrat: This is a solid Democratic district, so incumbent David Webster (D-Freeport) should have an easy time winning reelection against Emily Davis (R-Freeport).
H.D. 107 – Leans Democrat: Incumbent Richard Woodbury (U-Yarmouth) is leaving the seat, opening the race for Brian Bicknell (R-Yarmouth) and Melissa Innes (D-Yarmouth). Bicknell has spent a lot of money on his race, and has had help from the Republican Party. Innes, who survived a bitter primary fight, has the demographics of the district on her side.
H.D. 108 – Safe Republican: Incumbent Meredith Strang Burgess (R-Cumberland) has the demographics of the area on her side in her race against Brita Bonechi (D-Cumberland).
H.D. 109 – Tossup: Incumbent Susan Austin (R-Gray) face Anne Graham (D-North Yarmouth). Both ran in 2006, with Austin winning 2,198 to 1,979. It is a targeted race for both parties, with the Democrats spending $3,600 in independent expenditures and the Republicans spending $2,378. While Austin has an advantage as the incumbent, a strong showing for Barack Obama in this district could make a big difference for Graham.
H.D. 110 – Likely Democrat: Incumbent Mark Bryant faces Clayton Haskell (R-Windham) and Michael Wakefield (G-Windham). Bryant beat Haskell by 500 votes in 2006. While a strong showing for Obama will work in Bryant’s favor, there is no telling what impact the Green will have on the race.
H.D. 111 – Safe Republican: Incumbent Gary Plummer (R-Windham) won by about 1,200 votes in 2006, and will win easily against Michael Shaughnessy (D-Windham).
H.D. 112 – Leans Democrat: Incumbent David Savage (R-Falmouth) is leaving the seat, opening the race for William Dow (R-Falmouth) and Mary Nelson (D-Falmouth). While this is traditionally a Democratic district, Nelson has emerged as the stronger candidate. It will be a close race, but she is favored to prevail.
H.D. 113 – Likely Democrat: Incumbent John Brautigam (D-Falmouth) is leaving the seat to run for Attorney General, opening the race for Joan Cohen (D-Portland) and Jeffrey Martin (R-Portland). Cohen is a strong, moderate candidate in a district that favors Democrats, and she should prevail.
H.D. 114 – Safe Democrat: Incumbent Boyd Marley (D-Portland) is termed out, opening the race for Peter Stuckey (D-Portland) and David Fernald (R-Portland). We’re in Portland… Republi-who?
H.D. 115 – Leans Democrat (to Greens): Incumbent Glenn Cummings (D-Portland) is termed out, opening the race for Donna Bendiksen (R-Portland), Stephen Lovejoy (D-Portland) and Michael Hiltz (G-Portland). Lovejoy has the backing of Cummings, who is the outgoing House speaker. Hiltz, however, has earned the coveted League of Young Voters endorsement and has run a strong campaign. The presidential election doesn’t create a favorable environment for Greens, however they do have a presence in Portland and have the capacity to make a significant impact on this race.
H.D. 116 – Safe Democrat: Despite a strong and aggressive campaign by challenger Kenneth Capron (R-Portland), incumbent Charlie Harlow (D-Portland), a former mayor of Portland, has a clear advantage in this race.
H.D. 117 – Safe Democrat: Incumbent Anne Haskell (D-Portland) has a clear advantage in her race against Phillip Haskell (R-Portland). There is no relation between the two candidates.
H.D. 118 – Safe Democrat: Incumbent Jon Hinck (D-Portland) faces Josh Miller (G-Portland). Hinck took this seat from a Green by about 100 votes in 2006, however he is well-poised to win reelection this year.
H.D. 119 – Tossup (to Greens): Incumbent Herb Adams (D-Portland) faces Ryan Hendrickson (R-Portland) and Dan Jenkins (G-Portland). Adams has held this seat for the past three terms, and then four terms prior. The district has a young and transient population, and this is where the Green Party has their greatest presence. While the presidential election this year does not favor third parties, Jenkins is a strong challenger who has the Democratic Party worried, as evidenced by the $1,458 in independent expenditures in this district.
H.D. 120 – Safe Democrat: Incumbent Anne Rand (D-Portland) has left the seat, opening the race for Sandy Amborn (G-Portland), Peter Doyle (R-Portland) and Diane Russell (D-Portland). Doyle has run a very aggressive campaign, however his views are very conservative and likely won’t play well among the voters on Munjoy Hill. Russell is very well known both in the community and in the State House for her work on the Opportunity Maine legislation that passed last year. While it is hard to tell what impact the Green will have on this race, we suspect Russell will carry this district easily.
H.D. 121 – Leans Democrat: Incumbent Cynthia Dill (D-Cape Elizabeth) faces Jessica Sullivan (R-Cape Elizabeth). Dill won her first term narrowly by 144 votes. She had a strong first term and will likely win this year, but it will be a close one.
H.D. 122 – Likely Democrat: Incumbent Larry Bliss (D-South Portland) is running for the Senate, opening the race up for Terry Morrison (D-South Portland) and Brian Durham (R-South Portland). This is a Democratic district, and Morrison is a strong candidate, so he has a clear advantage in this race.
H.D. 123 – Safe Democrat: Incumbent Jane Eberle (D-South Portland) won by more than 1,000 votes in 2006, and should have no problem beating Peter Reynolds (R-South Portland).
H.D. 124 – Tossup: Incumbent Bryan Kaenrath (D-South Portland) faces Kevin Glynn (R-South Portland). Kaenrath won easily in 2006, and this is a Democratic district. However Glynn is a very aggressive challenger who held the seat for four terms prior – winning by 431 votes in 2004 -- and also served on the South Portland city council. Kaenrath, currently the youngest member of the Legislature, is finishing his first term. This is the Democratic Party’s Number 1 target in independent expenditures, spending $5,850 on Kaenrath’s behalf. The Republicans have spent $727 for Glynn.
H.D. 125 – Leans Democrat: Incumbent Ann Peoples (D-Westbrook) faces Robert Morrill (R-Westbrook). Peoples won by about 300 votes in 2006, and given the dynamics of this district it will likely be a close one this year, although she has the advantage.
H.D. 126 – Safe Democrat: Incumbent Timothy Driscoll (D-Westbrook) won by about 700 votes in 2006, and shouldn’t have a problem beating Kevin Crocker (R-Westbrook) this year.
H.D. 127 – Tossup: Incumbent John McDonough (R-Scarborough) faces Sean Peter Flaherty (D-Scarborough). McDonough won by about 150 votes in 2006, and is at risk this year. Flaherty grew up in the district and is well known. The Democratic Party has spent $4,500 on his behalf. This will be a race to watch.
H.D. 128 – Tossup: Incumbent Peggy Pendleton (D-Scarborough) faces Artemas Pickard (R-Scarborough). Pendleton won by 20 votes in 2006, and will have a tough race this year, given the dynamics of the district. The Democrats have invested $2,700 in this race.
H.D. 129 – Tossup: Incumbent Chris Barstow (D-Gorham) left the race after being accused of inappropriately using town resources, opening up a contest between Jane Knapp (R-Gorham) and Daniel LeVasseur (D-Gorham). Though this is a Democratic district, LeVasseur got a late start in the race and might be hurt by the controversy surrounding Barstow. The Democrats have spent $2,700 on the race, but it could be anyone’s game.
H.D. 130 – Leans Democrat: Incumbent David Farrington (D-Gorham) isn’t running, opening the race for Norman Justice (R-Gorham) and Linda Sanborn (D-Gorham). The demographics of this district favor the Democrats, and the Democratic Party has put $2,700 into the race. Sanborn, a popular doctor in the area, has the advantage, but it will likely be a close one.
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