PolitickerME.com has evaluated all 151 state House ratings by looking at the candidates, their histories and past results. We also spoke with people close to the process.
Click on the links for a county-by-county assessment:
ANDROSCOGGIN COUNTY | AROOSTOOK COUNTY | CUMBERLAND COUNTY | FRANKLIN COUNTY | HANCOCK COUNTY | KENNEBEC COUNTY | KNOX COUNTY | LINCOLN COUNTY | OXFORD COUNTY | PENOBSCOT COUNTY | PISCATAQUIS COUNTY | SAGADAHOC COUNTY | SOMERSET COUNTY | WALDO COUNTY | WASHINGTON COUNTY | YORK COUNTY
Click here for an overall evaluation.
York County
House District 131 – Leans Republican: Incumbent Donald Marean (R-Hollis) faces Robert Hunt (D-Buxton). This has emerged as one of the surprise races of the year. Marean won by 628 votes in 2006. However, Hunt has outworked him this year and the Democratic Party has made $4,500 in independent expenditures in the race. Marean has the backing of the Maine Prosperity PAC, which has spent $1,522 on the race. We still think Marean has the edge, but the race is within reach for Hunt.
H.D. 132 – Safe Democrat: Incumbent George Hogan (D-Old Orchard Beach) won by more than 1,500 votes in 2006, and should easily beat Grace Giroux (R-Old Orchard Beach).
H.D. 133 – Safe Democrat: Incumbent Don Pilon (D-Saco) is a strong candidate in a very Democratic district, and should beat Charity Kewish (R-Saco) easily.
H.D. 134 – Safe Democrat: Incumbent Linda Valentino (D-Saco) is a strong incumbent and should beat Allene Scott (R-Saco) easily.
H.D. 135 – Leans Democrat (to independent): Incumbent Paulette Beaudoin (D-Biddeford) faces Clairma Matherne (U-Biddeford), in a race that’s tricky to determine. Beaudoin was unopposed in 2006, when she won her first term. Matherne is a popular town clerk who knows everyone in town. Local Democratic Party infrastructure is very strong in this area, which helps Beaudoin. Beyond that, this race will be determined entirely by how hard each candidate works.
H.D. 136 – Safe Democrat: Incumbent Stephen Beaudette (D-Biddeford) is unopposed.
H.D. 137 – Safe Democrat: Incumbent Alan Casavant (D-Biddeford) is unopposed.
H.D. 138 – Likely Republican: Incumbent James Campbell Sr. (R-Newfield) faces Lacey Sloan (D-Limerick). Campbell beat Sloan by 486 votes in 2006. While this gives him a strong advantage, there is a slight chance that Democratic Party efforts for the top of the ticket will be enough to put Sloan over the top.
H.D. 139 – Tossup: Incumbent Lawrence Jacobsen (R-Waterboro) is leaving the seat, opening the race for Evan Grover (R-Waterboro) and Joseph Wagner (D-Lyman). Wagner lost to Jacobsen by about 100 votes in 2006, so he starts the race with some name recognition. Both parties have invested in the race, Democrats spending $3,600 and Republicans spending $1,268. This race is anyone’s game.
H.D. 140 – Tossup: Incumbent Gary Connor (D-Kennebunk) hopes to be in leadership, but first he must survive his own race. He faces Wayne Parry (R-Arundel). This traditionally is a tossup district, and both parties have invested in the race, Democrats spending $2,700 and Republicans spending $2,442. The race could go either way.
H.D. 141 --- Safe Democrat: Incumbent Chris Babbidge (D-Kennebunk) is leaving, and Edward Legg (D-Kennebunk) is running unopposed in his place.
H.D. 142 – Safe Democrat: Incumbent Andrea Boland (D-Sanford) faces Robert Carr (R-Sanford). This is a Democratic area, with Boland winning by 600 votes in 2006, and she should win reelection easily this year.
H.D. 143 – Safe Democrat: Incumbent John Tuttle (D-Sanford) is unopposed.
H.D. 144 – Safe Republican: Incumbent Joan Nass (R-Acton) faces Jordan Landry (D-Sanford). Nass is retired, and was a popular teacher. She won by about 600 votes in 2006, and should win reelection easily.
H.D. 145 – Tossup: Incumbent Richard Burns (D-Berwick) is running for the Senate, opening up the race for Oscar Stone (R-Berwick) and Thomas Wright (D-Berwick). Stone lost to Burns by about 600 votes in 2006, so starts the race with some name recognition. The Democrats have invested $2,700 in the race. By all indications, it’s anyone’s game.
H.D. 146 – Tossup: Incumbent Bonnie Gould (R-South Berwick) faces Mark Eves (D-North Berwick). Gould won by less than 100 votes in 2006, and Eves is a very strong challenger. Both parties have invested in the race, with the Democrats spending $4,500 and the Republicans spending $1,119. This will be a close race, and will likely be determined by the turnout from the presidential race.
H.D. 147 – Likely Republican: Incumbent Kathleen Chase (R-Wells) faces Fred Houle (D-Wells). Chase won by 235 votes in 2006, with an independent getting 351 votes. Chase is a strong incumbent and will likely do well in her race against Houle.
H.D. 148 – Tossup: Incumbent Sarah Lewin (R-Eliot) faces Roberta Beavers (D-South Berwick). Lewin beat Beavers by 124 votes in 2006. This year both candidates are working hard. Both parties have invested in the race, with the Democrats spending $4,500 and Republicans spending $2,422. This will be a close race, and will likely be determined by presidential turnout.
H.D. 149 – Safe Democrat: Incumbent Dawn Hill (D-York) faces Bradley Moulton (R-York). Hill beat Moulton 2,599 to 1,535 in 2006, and Hill will likely prevail by a large margin again this year.
H.D. 150 – Likely Republican: Incumbent Windol Weaver (R-York) faces Ronald McAllister (D-York). Weaver won his first term by 200 votes in 2006, and faces a strong challenger in McAllister. Weaver has a clear advantage, but this will still be a good race to watch.
H.D. 151 – Safe Democrat: Incumbent Walter Wheeler Sr. (D-Kittery) is unopposed.
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