November 1, 2008 - 19:44
News: Maine

2008 PolitickerME.com state House race analysis

PolitickerME.com has broken down all 151 House races. Click on the below links for a county-by-county analysis.

ANDROSCOGGIN COUNTY | AROOSTOOK COUNTY | CUMBERLAND COUNTY | FRANKLIN COUNTY | HANCOCK COUNTY | KENNEBEC COUNTY | KNOX COUNTY | LINCOLN COUNTY | OXFORD COUNTY | PENOBSCOT COUNTY | PISCATAQUIS COUNTY | SAGADAHOC COUNTY | SOMERSET COUNTY | WALDO COUNTY | WASHINGTON COUNTY | YORK COUNTY

 

According to PoltickerME.com ratings, we’ve arrived at the following totals:

  • 45 seats are ranked SAFE DEMOCRAT. This includes 41 seats with Democratic incumbents and four open seats.
  • 15 seats are ranked LIKELY DEMOCRAT. This includes eight seats with Democratic incumbents and seven open seats.
  • 16 seats are ranked LEANS DEMOCRAT. This includes six seats with Democratic incumbents and 10 open seats.
  • 26 seats are ranked TOSSUP. This includes 13 open seats, five seats with a Republican incumbent and eight seats with a Democratic incumbent.
  • 14 seats are ranked LEANS REPUBLICAN. This includes nine seats with a Republican incumbent and five open seats.
  • 7 seats are ranked LIKELY REPUBLICAN. All seven have Republican incumbents.
  • 27 seats are ranked SAFE REPUBLICAN. This includes 26 seats with a Republican incumbent and one open seat.
  • 1 seat is ranked SAFE INDEPENDENT, and has an independent incumbent.

 

There are 76 seats that favor the Democrats, 48 that favor the Republicans, 1 independent seat and 26 tossups.

This brings the 124th Legislature House total between 102 Democrats and 48 Republicans, with all tossups going to the Democrats, to 76 Democrats to 74 Republicans, with all tossups going to the Republicans. It will be somewhere in between.

Therefore, for the Democrats to get a supermajority in the House, they would need to win all but two of the tossup seats. For the Republicans to get a majority, they would need to win all the tossups and two more seats. Both scenarios are highly unlikely.

Jessica Alaimo is a PolitickerME.com Reporter and can be reached via email at noreply@politicker.com.

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