Editor’s note: PolitickerME.com has attempted to break down the state Senate races. Click here for a comprehensive overview, and on the following links for a closer look at the three tossup races – Senate District 1, Senate District 15 and Senate District 22.

With gaps in the U.S. House and Senate races widening, who controls the Maine Senate could be the biggest story coming out of Election Day when it comes to local races.

Currently the body stands at 18 Democrats and 17 Republicans. The GOP hopes to take control in the next Legislature, but Democrats only see themselves strengthening their numbers.

As follows is a breakdown of all 35 state Senate races. In addition, we have a more thorough analysis of the key races in Districts 1, 15 and 22. The information was compiled by looking at candidate and electoral histories, voter registration numbers, and – most importantly – through conversations with those close to the process.

The final breakdown:

• 9 races are rated SAFE DEMOCRAT
• 7 races are rated LIKELY DEMOCRAT
• 1 race is rated LEANS DEMOCRAT
• 3 races are rated TOSSUP
• 4 races are rated LEANS REPUBLICAN
• 5 races are rated LIKELY REPUBLICAN
• 6 races are rated SAFE REPUBLICAN

For the Republicans to gain the majority, they would need to win all three “tossup” races. Senate District 1 is their best chance to oust a Democratic incumbent. In Senate District 15, their Republican incumbent is at risk. In Senate District 22, their Republican incumbent is termed out, so they need to defend the open seat.

On both sides there are pickup opportunities that are a bit more of a stretch.

PolitickerME.com predictions are just that – predictions. And the one thing we can guarantee is that at least somewhere on this list we will be proven very, very wrong.

Senate District 1 – Tossup: Incumbent Peter Bowman (D-Kittery) faces former Sen. Mary Andrews (R-York) in one of the hottest races of the year. Click here for a comprehensive breakdown.

S.D. 2 – Likely Republican: Incumbent Richard Nass (R-Acton) faces Richard Burns (D-Berwick), a current House member. Burns, a carpenter, antique store owner and an artist says he wants to go to the Senate to help get rid of the influence lobbyists have in that body. He has a steep, uphill climb against Nass, who spent four terms in the House and the past three in the Senate. Republicans have a slight edge in this district registration-wise, but the bulk of voters remain unenrolled. There has been very little independent expenditure spending in this race indicating that Republicans feel the seat is safe and Democrats see the race as too much of a stretch. Still, Burns is working hard and connecting with the constituency, and is likely giving Nass a run for his money.

S.D. 3 – Leans Republican: Incumbent Jonathan Courtney (R-Sanford) is up against Robert Stackpole (D-Sanford). This district has a Democratic enrollment edge yet a Republican incumbent, making this a targeted race for the Democrats. The Democratic Party and the Senate Democratic Campaign Committee has spent $34,324 on behalf of Stackpole. The Maine Republican Party and the Maine Senate Republican Committee have spent $8,267 on behalf of Courtney. Courtney is a strong incumbent and will be difficult to knock off. The Democrats are focusing on get-out-the-vote efforts among Democrats and unenrolled voters in this district. A strong showing for the top of the ticket among Democrats could make a significant impact in this state Senate race.

S.D. 4 – Safe Democrat: Incumbent Nancy Sullivan (D-Biddeford) faces Kristi Bryant (R-Kennebunkport). The bulk of this district rests in Biddeford, which is reliably Democratic. Sullivan has spent 12 years in the Legislature – eight in the House and the past four in the Senate. Sullivan is the mother of Peter Chandler, the mastermind behind the Democratic Party’s operations across the state this year. Apparently she didn’t call in any favors – there hasn’t been any independent expenditure spending on this race for either her or her opponent. While Sullivan would have been nearly impossible to defeat in the first place, Bryant’s recent OUI arrest certainly didn’t help matters.

S.D. 5 – Safe Democrat: Incumbent Barry Hobbins (D-Saco) faces John Cushing (R-Saco). While Cushing is a strong opponent, Hobbins is an established incumbent who will be nearly impossible to beat.

S.D. 6 – Likely Democrat: Incumbent Phil Bartlett (D-Gorham) faces Phil Csoros (R-Gorham). Bartlett won by about 2,000 votes in 2006. However, Csoros, a Gorham city councilor, is a formidable challenger. The Republican Party started spending in this race late, but it skyrocketed to become their fourth priority. The party and the Maine Senate Republican Committee have spent $17,643 on the race. The Democrats have not invested anything in Bartlett, indicating their confidence in their candidate. This is a Democratic district, and Bartlett will be tough to beat.

S.D. 7 – Likely Democrat: Incumbent Lynn Bromley (D-South Portland) is termed out, opening the seat for Lawrence Bliss (D-South Portland) and Thomas Dunne (R-Cape Elizabeth). Bliss is finishing his fourth term in the House. Dunne is known in his community as a businessman. While Dunne is putting up a good fight, the demographics of this district are very much in Bliss’ favor.

S.D. 8 – Likely Democrat: Incumbent Ethan Strimling (D-Portland) left the seat to make a failed bid for Congress, opening the race for Justin Alfond (D-Portland), William Linnell (G-Portland) and Eric Lusk (R-Portland). Alfond prevailed in a tough three-way primary. As a general rule we’re not awarding “safe” ratings in open seats, but between his work in the community with the League of Young Voters and name recognition from his grandfather, Harold Alfond, Justin Alfond should have no problem winning this seat.

S.D. 9 – Safe Democrat: Incumbent Joseph Brannigan (D-Portland) faces Nick McGee (R-Portland), the former chairman of the Portland City Republicans. Brannigan won in 2006 with about 70 percent of the vote, is beloved in his district, and shouldn’t have any trouble winning another term.

S.D. 10 – Likely Democrat: Incumbent Beth Edmonds (D-Freeport) is termed out, opening the race for Stan Gerzofsky (D-Brunswick), Jason Bergquist (G-Brunswick) and Cody Gillis (R-Brunswick). Bergquist is more of a threat to Gerzofsky than Gillis, who hasn’t been able to campaign. While it is difficult to gauge what impact Bergquist will have on the race, Gerzofsky, who is completing his fourth term in the House, should prevail.

S.D. 11 – Leans Republican: Incumbent Karl Turner (R-Cumberland) is termed out, opening the race for Jerry Davis (R-Falmouth) and Jeanne Hulit (D-Falmouth). Both are strong candidates, creating a hotly contested race. Davis spent four terms in the House and is very well known in Falmouth. Hulit is a banker, a businesswoman and is active in the community. The race has attracted some independent expenditure spending. $8,049 was the total spent on Davis between the Maine Republican Party and the Maine Senate Republican Committee. $3,582 total was spent on Hulit between the Senate Democratic Campaign Committee, the Maine People’s Alliance, the Maine Conservation Voters Action Fund and Planned Parenthood. Enrollment in the district favors Davis, but if there is a strong showing among Democrats for the top of the ticket, it could swing the election in Hulit’s favor.

S.D. 12 – Safe Democrat: Incumbent Bill Diamond (D-Windham) faces Thomas Golebiewski (R-Raymond). Diamond is an established figure in Maine politics, spending seven terms in the Legislature, serving as Secretary of State, and is rumored to be a potential 2010 gubernatorial candidate. While Golebiewski is working hard, Diamond will be nearly impossible to knock off.

S.D. 13 – Likely Republican: Incumbent David Hastings III (R-Fryeburg) faces Lisa Villa (D-Harrison). Hastings had a tough race in 2006, winning by 700 votes, and Villa is a formidable challenger. Hastings earned a lot of recognition in his district last year when he championed a bill that kept protestors away from funerals, arising from a controversy in the district. The Democratic Party hasn’t made any independent expenditures in this race, however, which indicates that it is not a top priority for them. The Democratic organization in the district is strong, however, and a strong showing for the top of the ticket will make a great impact on Villa.

S.D. 14 – Safe Democrat: Incumbent Bruce Bryant (D-Dixfield) faces Glen Holmes (R-Buckfield). Holmes will do well in the Southern part of the district, where he is known as the town manager of Buckfield. The population center of this district, however, rests in the Northern part – Rumford, Dixfield and Jay, where the paper mills are still the center of the community and the labor movement is strong. Bryant is a machine operator at the New Page paper mill, and has a lock on this demographic. With that taken into account, he wins easily.

S.D. 15 – Tossup: Incumbent Lois Snowe-Mello (R-Poland) faces Deborah Simpson (D-Auburn). This is one of the hottest state Senate races this year. Click here for a comprehensive look at the race.

S.D. 16 – Likely Democrat: Incumbent Peggy Rotundo (D-Lewiston) is termed out, opening the race for Margaret Craven (D-Lewiston) and Corey Troup (R-Lewiston). Lewiston is and always will be a Democratic stronghold, and Craven will win easily.

S.D. 17 – Safe Democrat: Incumbent John Nutting (D-Leeds) faces Russell Pack (R-Turner). Pack is a strong opponent who touts the need for smaller government, however Nutting is completing his seventh term in the Legislature, is well regarded as a moderate, and will win re-election easily.

S.D. 18 – Likely Republican: Incumbent Walter Gooley (R-Farmington) faces Ann Woloson (D-Belgrade). Gooley won by about 2,000 votes in 2006, and is well known in Farmington, the population center of the district. Woloson is a former chief of staff to the Senate President so she is well-known in Augusta. Gooley is a popular incumbent and is favored to prevail, however this is another district where a strong showing on behalf of the Democrats for the top of the ticket could shift the winds dramatically for local candidates. The Democratic Party has spent $3,000 on behalf of Woloson, which is significant but still a small amount compared to some other candidates.

S.D. 19 – Leans Republican: Incumbent Paula Benoit (R-Phippsburg) faces Seth Goodall (D-Richmond). Benoit won her first term in an upset over an incumbent who started as a Republican but switched parties mid-term. Goodall is known in his district, but also in Augusta as legal counsel to the Senate President. Both candidates are campaigning feverishly. The Democrats have invested heavily in this race – Goodall ranks number three among Democratic candidates in outside spending with $42,341 spent on his behalf in between the Senate Democratic Campaign Committee, the Maine Democratic Party and the Maine Conservation Voters Action Fund. The Republican Party has spent $1,338 on Benoit. The incumbent has the edge in this race, however like many other races a strong showing for the top of the ticket could make a significant impact for Goodall.

S.D. 20 – Leans Republican: Incumbent Dana Dow (R-Waldoboro) has decided not to run, opening the seat for Peter Rines (D-Wiscasset) and David Trahan (R-Waldoboro). Trahan’s license plate says “OPEGA”, a reminder that his legislation helped found the government watchdog, the Office of Program Evaluation and Governmental Accountability. Trahan served in the House from 1998 to 2006, and this year is running on the platform of bringing a community college to the county. Rines is finishing his fourth term in the House as well, serving on the Utilities and Energy Committee, and is running on the platform of keeping electrical costs low for Mainers. This race has attracted some outside spending. $1,750 has been spent on Rines between the Senate Democratic Campaign Committee and the Equality Maine PAC. $4,598 has been spent on Trahan between the Maine Republican Party and the Maine Senate Republican Committee. Enrollment favors Trahan in this race, but it will be a close one.

S.D. 21 – Likely Republican: Incumbent Earle McCormick (R-West Gardiner) faces Sharon Benoit (D-Monmouth). McCormick’s elections have always been close, as this is a divided district with a Democratic enrollment edge. He is well-regarded in the Legislature as a moderate, and was a coach in his district which gave him solid name recognition. Benoit is a former representative, serving from 1976 to 1984. The Senate Democrats have only made $417 in independent expenditures for Benoit, an indication that they don’t see this as a key pick-up opportunity. The Maine Republican Party has spent $5,045 on McCormick’s behalf – likely as a cautionary measure. This race could come down to about 1,000 votes, probably in McCormick’s favor.

S.D. 22 – Tossup: If we were to pick out the single most competitive race, it would be this one. Click here for a comprehensive breakdown on this race for an open seat between Chris Rector (R-Thomaston) and David Miramant (D-Camden).

S.D. 23 – Safe Republican: Senate Republican Leader Carol Weston (R-Montville) faces Diane Messer (D-Liberty). Weston is a solid incumbent – her pleasant teacher voice thoroughly masking the politician within. Messer is a solid challenger, but Weston will prove to be unbeatable in her own district.

S.D. 24 – Safe Democrat: Senate Majority Leader Libby Mitchell (D-Vassalboro) faces Kim Davis (R-Augusta). Mitchell is a beloved figure in her district, winning by more than 60 percent in 2006. Davis, a former representative, is running a tough campaign, but Mitchell will be a tough one to beat.

S.D. 25 – Safe Democrat: Incumbent Lisa Marrache (D-Waterville) faces Brent Hutchins (R-Albion). Hutchins is the son-in-law of Mickey Marden, the founder of the Mardens stores, so he starts with some name recognition. Still, Waterville is a Democratic stronghold so Marrache’s re-election will likely be safe.

S.D. 26 – Safe Republican: Incumbent Peter Mills (R-Cornville) faces Robert Sezek (D-Fairfield). Sezek is a strong challenger and has even sprung for some television ads, but he’s up against a Mills – and that family’s name recognition is too powerful to overcome.

S.D. 27 – Safe Republican: Incumbent Douglas Smith (R-Dover-Foxcroft) faces Susan Mackey-Andrews (D-Dover-Foxcroft). Piscataquis County is the state’s most reliable Republican stronghold, and with former Sen. Paul Davis (R-Sangerville) running for the House, both Republicans will do well.

S.D. 28 – Likely Democrat: Incumbent Dennis Damon (D-Trenton) faces Mark Remick (R-Trenton). There has been some noise around this race. First, Damon pledged to keep his campaign costs at a minimum and donate any money given to his campaign to charity. Then, this week, it was revealed this week that Damon owes back taxes. It’s unclear what impact this will have on the election. Damon won by more than 5,000 votes in 2006, an indication that his re-election is safe in this Democratic district.

S.D. 29 – Safe Republican: Incumbent Kevin Raye (R-Perry) faces Karen Johnson (D-Machias) and Dana Kadey (U-No. 21 Twp.). The Rayes are icons in Washington County, known as Republican Party activists and for owning their own business, Raye’s Mustard in Eastport. Raye won by more than 5,000 votes in a four-way race in 2006, and shouldn’t have a problem prevailing this year. His name is already being tossed around as a possible 2010 gubernatorial candidate.

S.D. 30 – Safe Democrat: Incumbent Elizabeth Schneider (D-Orono) faces Valerie Carr-Winocour (R-Old Town). This has been an interesting race, with Carr-Winocour sending out unique mailers that take on not only Schneider but the Democratic establishment. Still, this is a Democratic district so Schneider’s re-election appears safe.

S.D. 31 – Safe Republican: Incumbent Richard Rosen (R-Bucksport) faces Deborah Deane (D-Brewer). This is a Republican district and the Rosens are strong incumbents.

S.D. 32 – Leans Democrat: Incumbent Joe Perry (D-Bangor) faces former Sen. Tom Sawyer (R-Bangor). Perry ousted Sawyer by 300 votes in a 2004 upset, and went on to win solidly in a three-way race in 2006. Perry earned name recognition as chairman of the taxation committee when they attempted to overhaul the tax structure in 2007. The effort failed narrowly. This district has a Democratic enrollment edge. This will be a close race, but in a Democratic year, Sawyer will likely fall short.

S.D. 33 – Safe Republican: Incumbent Debra Plowman (R-Hampden) faces Wanda Beland (D-Newport). Plowman is a popular incumbent, enrollment in the district strongly favors Republicans, and she will likely win re-election easily.

S.D. 34 – Likely Republican: Incumbent Roger Sherman (R-Hodgdon) faces Jackie Lundeen (D-Mars Hill). This is a strong Republican district, and Sherman won by nearly 3,000 votes in 2006. Lundeen is finishing her fourth term in the House, and as a potato farmer embodies the typical “County” resident. She is giving Sherman a run for his money, however given the dynamics of the district the incumbent will likely prevail. This is another race where if the Democrats make a strong showing for the top of the ticket, it will greatly help Lundeen, however this is less likely than in some of the Southern Maine races.

S.D. 35 – Likely Democrat: Incumbent John Martin (D-Eagle Lake) is termed out, opening the seat for Troy Jackson (D-Fort Kent) and Danny Deveau (R-Cyr Plantation). This was a tricky race to handicap as there hasn’t been a “real” race in this district in ages. The Republicans have pinpointed this as a targeted district since the beginning of the year. Deveau is a Franco-American, a potato farmer and the Cyr Plantation town manager – a good mix of qualifications for a candidate in the County. Jackson is finishing his fourth term in the House so has strong name recognition in part of the district.

There was a shake-up in this race last week when a picture of Jackson sleeping in the House chamber was run as an advertisement in a weekly newspaper. While neither Deveau nor the Republican Party was responsible for the ad, the Republicans quickly pounced on the issue.

Despite the Republicans’ determination, the numbers simply don’t back up the potential for a Republican victory. The district has 11,235 Democrats, 5,915 Republicans and 8,024 independents. Still, there is little history to go by given Martin’s lock on the district, so we could be wrong.