November 5, 2008 - 23:19
News: Maine

Legislative seat predictions: How we did

Prior to the election, PolitickerME.com handicapped all 151 Maine House seats and all 35 Senate seats. Now we’ll check how we did.

 

The House

All in all, we were wrong six times out of the 125 seats we dared make predictions – all but one of those in a leaning seat.

  • 45 seats were ranked SAFE DEMOCRAT. All of these seats went to Democrats.
  • 27 seats were ranked SAFE REPUBLICAN. All of these seats went to Republicans.
  • 1 seat was ranked SAFE INDEPENDENT. It went to an independent.
  • 15 seats were ranked LIKELY DEMOCRAT. We were wrong on H.D. 6, which went to Tyler Clark (R-Easton). We were correct on all the others.
  • 7 seats were ranked LIKELY REPUBLICAN. All of these seats went to Republicans.
  • 16 seats were ranked LEANS DEMOCRAT. We were wrong on H.D. 70, which went to Bruce Bickford (R-Auburn). We were correct on all the others.
  • 14 seats were ranked LEANS REPUBLICAN. We were wrong four times here, H.D. 41 went to Veronica Magnan (D-Stockton Springs), H.D. 44 went to Andrew O’Brien (D-Lincolnville), H.D. 105 went to David Van Wie (D-New Gloucester) and H.D. 131 went to Robert Hunt (D-Buxton).
  • 26 seats were ranked TOSSUP. Of those, 17 went to Democrats and 9 went to Republicans.

 

The Senate

Of the 32 races we made predictions in, we were only wrong on one.

  • 9 races were rated SAFE DEMOCRAT. All went to Democrats.
  • 6 races were rated SAFE REPUBLICAN. They went to Republicans.
  • 7 races were rated LIKELY DEMOCRAT. All went to Democrats.
  • 5 races were rated LIKELY REPUBLICAN. They went to Republicans.
  • 1 race was rated LEANS DEMOCRAT. It went to a Democrat.
  • 4 races were rated LEANS REPUBLICAN. In S.D. 19, Seth Goodall (D-Richmond) beat Paula Benoit (R-Phippsburg). The other three went to Republicans.
  • 3 races were rated TOSSUP. Two went to Democrats, and one went to a Republican.

Jessica Alaimo is a PolitickerME.com Reporter and can be reached via email at noreply@politicker.com.

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