WASHINGTON - While prognosticators argue that House Democrats will have trouble winning seats for a third consecutive cycle, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Chris Van Hollen (D-Kensington) is articulating a plan to fellow Democratic Members that focuses both on defense and offense in the 2010 cycle.

On Thursday morning, Van Hollen convened the DCCC's recruiting team for its first meeting following the Nov. 4 election, which saw Democrats win at least 20 seats and expand their majority to around 260 seats. Several members present at the gathering said today that Van Hollen was determined to begin work on the upcoming cycle and that the planning process for retaining incumbents and targeting seats, including candidate recruitment, had already begun.

"This is going to be a mix of offense and defense," said U.S. Rep. Steve Israel (D-N.Y.), one of the Members present at the meeting. "The brilliance of Chris Van Hollen's strategy is to play both."

Israel was joined at the meeting by U.S. Reps. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz (D-Fla.), Russ Carnahan (D-Mo.), Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), Joe Crowley (D-N.Y.), and Van Hollen himself. The group poured over what one participant called a "voluminous" set of data that included performance of members in races and the vote totals of Barack Obama and John McCain in key districts. As Van Hollen maps out his list of GOP targets in the upcoming cycle, meeting participants said they were interested in districts where Republicans performed more poorly than the DCCC had expected. The committee did not, for example, make a push to win in Michigan's 11th Congressional district, where U.S. Rep. Thaddeus McCotter won with just 51.3 percent. Or, in California's 3rd, 44th, 46th, and 50th Congressional districts, where U.S. Reps. Dan Lungren, Ken Calvert, Dana Rohrabacher, and Brian Bilbray won with vote totals hovering near the 50 percent mark.

Schiff said in a telephone interview there are "several seats" that were not invested in during the 2008 cycle that are "at the top of our target list." 

Democrats are also looking at seats where John Kerry performed well in but where Republicans are still hanging on. While Obama's margin of victory in districts were an important indicator of where the party could have success in future House races, Obama is seen as having so overwhelmingly bucked historical trends that Kerry's performance stands as a better barometer of potential performance.

A Democrat familiar with the committee, but who was not present at today's meeting, said McCotter and U.S. Rep. Judy Biggert (R-Ill.) could become major targets during the 2010 cycle, but that more investigation was needed into whether the California seats, which typically trend conservative, are winnable.

In New York, where Democrats picked up three seats this cycle, Israel said he was "not giving up" on the 26th Congressional district seat of retiring U.S. Rep. Tom Reynolds. Republicans retained the seat in 2008, but Israel said the western New York-area district, which has been hard hit by the economic collapse, could be won.

With the party winning at least 54 seats in the last two elections cycles, some of which residing in conservative districts, Democrats in the meeting also spoke about where the committee would need to work to shore up potentially vulnerable incumbents. There is already talk that U.S. Reps. Zack Space (D-Ohio) and Betsy Markey (D-Colo.), both of whom occupy conservative-leaning districts, could come under target from the GOP in 2010.

Van Hollen broached the subject of the committee playing defense in a Wednesday news conference.

"Just being realistic, we're going to fight hard to hold the line," Van Hollen told members of the National Press Club. "Our major focus will be helping in the toughest districts."

Schiff, acknowledging that incumbent retention was a focus of the meeting, took a cup half-filled approach to the problem. "We're going to have a lot of incumbents to focus on. That's a nice problem to have," he said.

Democrats say Van Hollen is interested in recruiting early to solidify advantages in potentially friendly Republican-held districts, something he did with success in races in Virginia in 2008. One party insider suggested the DCCC would look to districts in Indiana and North Carolina where Obama did well, but GOP congressmen held on.

The DCCC recruiting team also meets on Thursday mornings to discuss fundraising and other planning. With Members scattering to their districts until the open of the 111th Congress in January, it was seen as important to meet today to start the committee's planning for the next cycle. 

Van Hollen is serving his second consecutive cycle at the committee, though his top lieutenant, DCCC Executive Director Brian Wolff, has yet to state whether he will return. Sources familiar with the committee predicted that Wolff would wait until the outcome of Louisiana's 4th Congressional district contest in early December to make a decision.

On the GOP side, U.S. Rep. Pete Sessions (R-Texas) is set to take over the troubled National Republican Congressional Committee. Sessions ousted former NRCC Chairman Tom Cole (R-Okla.) in Wednesday's GOP Conference leadership elections.

While the historical odds are stacked against them in the 2008 cycle, House Democrats say the return of Van Hollen gives them an edge over Republicans. While the newcomer Sessions will have to rebuild a campaign committee that has struggled with fundraising and recruiting, Israel argued that Van Hollen had the system worked out.

"There is a huge advantage to retaining Chris Van Hollen at the DCCC," said Israel. "He has had two years to figure out the mechanics, the dynamics, and you don't have to worry about a learning curve. He's got a team battle-hardened, already tested, and there's no drawing board to go back to at the DCCC right now."