[img_assist|nid=298|title=Gov. Deval Patrick (D-Milton) at a campaign rally in 2006|desc=Getty Image|link=none|url=undefined|align=left|width=403|height=278]

Next week, as the country shifts from watching the Olympics to watching politics, Gov. Deval Patrick will address the country in one of the most coveted speaking slots in politics when he delivers a primetime speech at the Democratic National Convention next Tuesday.

And so before Patrick (and PolitickerMA.com) heads to Denver, PolitickerMA.com surveyed several local political strategists to set expectations for the governor's speech and to lay out the best and worst case scenarios for the presentation. Surprisingly, the responses were very mixed. 

More than anything else, everyone agreed that the speech provides Patrick (D-Milton) a special platform. "It's an extraordinary opportunity for him to introduce himself on the national stage," said Steven Grossman, the Boston-based former chairman of the Democratic National Committee.

While Patrick's speech is unlikely to run on the networks, the media, punditry and political strategists will be watching and will be his most important audience, several strategists said. Just as Obama did in 2004, Patrick could establish himself as an up-and-coming star of the Democratic Party.

The speech will also undoubtedly set the Massachusetts political rumor mill ablaze with speculation that Patrick will leave the Statehouse for a spot in an Obama administration. As Mike Shea, a Boston political strategist, said, "It does not mean Patrick would leave the Statehouse, but it does mean there will be more stories speculating that Patrick will leave the Statehouse."

Shea added that the speech could also help Patrick's reelection prospects. 

"In a heavily Democratic state like ours," Shea said, "he can make voters proud by shinning in the national spotlight by delivering the kind of inspiring speech we know he's capable of."

Interestingly, analysts had widely different opinions when asked how well they expected Patrick's speech to be received. Some pointed his training on the professional speaker's circuit before he ran for governor as evidence that Patrick could even upstage presumptive Democratic nominee Barack Obama (Ill.), just as Obama did to Democratic nominee John Kerry (D-Boston) in 2004, in the opinions of several pundits.

"Given the governor's comfort with a podium and a large crowd, and the inspirational language he usually uses," Grossman says, "my guess is that the speech will be rated extremely positively."

But the pressure is on. Grossman added that there will be a "fairly high expectation because Patrick is known as a great public speaker."

Others expect Patrick to have a tough time impressing a national audience. "He goes over well in Cambridge and Weston, but before a national audience he may well sound kind of stiff," said Dennis Hale, a political scientist at Boston College. "This is apparently an occupational hazard with these convention speeches; they have to please all constituencies."

The similarities between Patrick and Obama could also pose a risk to both politicians, some said. For one, they appeal to similar audiences, so Patrick's speech is unlikely to appeal to anyone outside Obama's base, one analyst said. "One of the risks of having Deval in the mix," said David Paleologos, a pollster at Suffolk University, "is that it may not be as dynamic. The audience will have already heard one great orator that appeals to the same demographics that Obama does."

More, If Patrick does over shadow Obama (a long shot, but a possibility nevertheless), another said, the speech would obviously undercut Obama at his own convention.

Several analysts also suggested that by thrusting the governor into the limelight, Obama is asking for the national GOP to spotlight Patrick as a harbinger for Obama. Republicans, this line of argument goes, could point to Patrick's missteps during the first year of his administration and say that Obama will make similar mistakes because he isn't prepared for the job.

"Patrick's potentially exploitable," Paleologos said, "in terms of just putting the first year of the Patrick administration under a microscope."

Combating that line of attack may be the most important task for Patrick in his speech, Hale said. "The best scenario for Patrick's speech is that he comes across as capable," he said. "That suggests that a black candidate with no experience who greatest strength is that he inspires ‘hope' can present himself as a strong executive."

Grossman, however, said Patrick's message will help reinforce and drive home Obama's message while at the same time establishing him nationally. "The speech will burnish his role on the national state as a force and as a person whose compatibility with Obama's message is clear and unequivocal."