[img_assist|nid=427|title=U.S. Sen. John Kerry (D-Boston) campaigning in Framingham this year|desc=Politicker Photo|link=none|align=left|width=397|height=317]John Kerry's more than two-to-one defeat of challenger Ed O'Reilly in Tuesday's U.S. Senate primary certainly sent the message that the Boston senator and 2004 Democratic presidential nominee is not easy to take on.

But with O'Reilly, who was virtually unknown before the Democratic State Convention in June, breaking 30 percent, several are questioning where the Gloucester attorney's support came from.

Several political analysts said it can't be overstated that earning nearly 70 percent of the vote, as Kerry did on Tuesday, is a resounding victory. But for someone with Kerry's stature as a former leader of his party and 24-year senator, some said that the results did raise questions about the size of Kerry's base of support in the Bay State.

"At 60+ percent Kerry got what he needed to in order to not look politically weak, said Dan Payne, a veteran Boston Democratic strategist. "But one out of three Democrats preferring someone else ain't exactly a ringing endorsement."

More, several analysts said O'Reilly's 31 percent came was not a "pro-ed" vote but rather a "Kerry protest"vote. Dennis Hale, a political scientist at political scientist at Boston College, called these "disgruntled Democrats" that are unhappy with the current Democratic rule in the state.

Mike Shea, another Boston Democratic strategist, agreed and said that there were three groups of voters that banded together during the primary with the intention to send Kerry a message.

"Kerry bore the brunt of the anger of three distinct groups of Democrats," Shea said, "Hillary supporters angry at his support for Obama, those angry at his support for the war and those just angry at all incumbents."

"And he had the misfortune of being up this year," Shea added.

Steven Grossman, a Boston Democratic strategist and former chairman of the Democratic National Committee, said discontent surrounding Kerry's backing Barack Obama (D- Ill.) over Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) in the presidential primary was at the root of O'Reilly's candidacy from the beginning.

"There were a significant number of people, particularly those that were passionate supporters of Hillary that were angry at John Kerry for supporting Barack Obama," Grossman said. "Many of them, particularly some activists in the Democratic Party, were determined to send John Kerry a message."

Those activists helped O'Reilly get on the ballot at the convention, Grossman said, and likely supported O'Reilly through the election.

"The primary was a cathartic moment for those who wanted to send John a message," Payne added. "O'Reilly was a protest vehicle, nothing more."

Grossman noted that a 24-year senator is inevitably going to lose the support of some voters.

"In a 25 year period anybody is going to pick up a certain number of naysayers," he said. "Inevitably when someone else is on the ballot and when people clearly indicated earlier in the year that they were for a 'change,' I think it was less about John Kerry and his effectiveness as a senator than a sense that change is in the wind."

Grossman noted that U.S. Sen. Edward Kennedy, who polls have shown is the most popular pol in the state, would likely cede similar ground to any challenger in this political climate. "Even someone that is as beloved a figure as Ted Kennedy," he said, "would lose a lot of votes because people want change."

More, some said that Kerry's run for the presidency in 2004 may have hurt his standing in the Bay State. By focusing on his own national political profile, inevitably some in the state felt he was neglected his primary constituency.

Other analysts said that O'Reilly posed almost an unfair problem for Kerry in the expectations game because he was so overmatched. It would be almost impossible, these analysts say, for an incumbent to come through with something like a 85 to 15 win against a candidate about who very little is known.

Dorie Clark, a Somerville Democratic strategist, drew a biblical parallel.

"Ed O'Reilly didn't have the name recognition or the elective-office credentials to get anything more than the 'anybody but Kerry' vote," she said. "It's like Peggy Davis-Mullen and Maura Hennigan taking on Mayor Menino (and they actually had decent credentials as at-large councilors)- their underfunded candidacies were like David throwing slingshots at Goliath. And in Massachusetts politics, Goliath almost always wins."