September 25, 2008 - 08:07

Analysts: O’Reilly didn’t set himself up for another run

Through his primary challenge of John Kerry, Ed O'Reilly certainly raised his political profile from being a virtual unknown to, at the very least, a courageous challenger willing to take on one of the most established politicians in the Bay State.

[img_assist|nid=1289|title=Ed O'Reilly (D-Gloucester)|desc=|link=none|align=right|width=155|height=183]And on Wednesday, O'Reilly told PolitickerMA.com that he is "absolutely" interested in running for office again.

But in the wake of his 38-point loss to the Boston senator, some local analysts said they don't see a future for O'Reilly in Bay State politics.

Dorie Clark, a Somerville Democratic strategist, suggested that O'Reilly was so overmatched in his race against Kerry in terms of his war chest and his name recognition that that the was never taken seriously by the political chattering class.

"Ed O'Reilly seems like a good guy and is funny as hell, but I'm not sure there was enough coverage of the race for him to have ‘broken through' and positioned himself for another office," Clark said.

Clark also noted that perhaps O'Reilly's future lies outside the political arena.

"He'd be a great talk show host, though," she said.

Steven Grossman, a Boston Democratic strategist and former chairman of the Democratic National Convention, said that Bay State pols have often established themselves in failed bids. Grossman pointed to former Gov. Mitt Romney's (R-Belmont) challenge of U.S. Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Hyannis Port) in 1994 as setting up Romney's run for governor in 2002. Romney sunk several million dollars of his personal wealth into the race, more than O'Reilly did, and won 41 percent of the vote, 10 points more than O'Reilly's earned this year.

Grossman also pointed to Sonia Chang-Diaz's coming up short in her effort to unseat state Sen. Dianne Wilkerson (D-Boston) in 2006 as setting up her upset of Wilkerson this year, which is pending a recount.

But in O'Reilly's case, Grossman said the Democrat, who was best known for his criticism of Kerry's vote to authorize the use of force in Iraq in 2002 and for his relentless calls for debates, was more of a vehicle for disgruntled Massachusetts Democrats to send a message to Kerry and that support likely hasn't set him up for a future run.

"I don't think Ed O'Reilly ran the type of campaign that would tell me, at the moment, that he has a particularly robust future in Massachusetts politics," Grossman said.

Some strategists said O'Reilly's run this year could have been a political move to set up another U.S. Senate run should Kerry leave to join an Obama administration in January. And, moreoever, O'Reilly said Wednesday that he would consider running for Kerry's seat if that scenario were to occur.

But those same strategists also said that if Kerry's seat does open up, numerous Bay State pols who have been around longer and have significantly more money than O'Reilly will likely throw their hats into the ring.

"I just don't see it," Grossman said when asked about O'Reilly's chances in that scenario.

Dan Payne, a veteran Boston Democratic strategist, was more blunt.

"O'Reilly has no statewide future," he said. "He could run for some county or local office. In a few weeks, his recognition will fall to single digits. In six months, he'll be a trivia answer."

Asked about the possibility of Kerry's seat opening up, Payne said O'Reilly won't be able to compete with others that will run.

"If Obama wins and Kerry gets a high level position, the race to fill his open seat will be a wild scramble among strong congressional candidates and possibly some statewide office holders," Payne said. "O'Reilly? Who's that? See? I forgot him already."

Jeremy P. Jacobs is a PolitickerMA.com Reporter and can be reached via email at noreply@politicker.com.

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