[img_assist|nid=1216|title=State Sen. Dianne Wilkerson (D-Boston)|desc=Politicker Photo|link=none|align=left|width=400|height=264]With state Sen. Dianne Wilkerson seeking to defend her seat with a write-in campaign after losing the Sept. 16 Democratic primary to Sonia Chang-Diaz, many have questioned whether Wilkerson has any chance of winning given that the state senator's name will not be on the ballot.

And although Wilkerson says she has an experienced write-in organization since winning the 2006 Democratic primary with all write-in votes, most analysts told PolitickerMA.com this week that, while it isn't impossible, the chances of Wilkerson winning are slim.

"She needs a miracle," Mike Shea, a Boston Democratic strategist, said.

The Wilkerson camp has said it is counting on two factors to be successful on Election Day. First, it already has a write-in campaign organization in place since Wilkerson won with stickers in 2006. The organization yielded just less than 6,500 write-in votes for Wilkerson in 2006. Second, African American turnout on Nov. 4 in the 2nd Suffolk District will be enormous since the large population of blacks in the district will be energized by Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama's candidacy.

Several analysts poked holes in the Wilkerson campaign's logic. Steve Ansolabehere, a political scientist at Harvard, said that this year's presidential primaries suggests there may be an increase in African American turnout of 20 percent. However, that increase may not put Wilkerson over the top, Ansolabehere said.

"Increased African American turnout alone doesn't look like it will be enough," he said. "The Chang-Diaz campaign will devote resources to mobilizing its supporters. And, presumably Wilkerson already enjoyed increased African American turnout owing to the fact that she was running."

Another strategist familiar Boston politics said that high turnout on Election Day could end up benefitting Chang-Diaz, not Wilkerson. Wilkerson will likely see a boost in her base in Wards 8, 9 and 12, where Dorchester and Roxbury are. However, the strategist said, turnout in Ward 5, where Beacon Hill is and one of the densest wards in the district, will likely be as high if not higher. Ward 5 voted overwhelmingly for Chang-Diaz in the primary. A similar scenario could also play out in Jamaica Plain, Ward 19, another part of Chang-Diaz's base.

Further, a high turnout election puts a premium on organization and more than one strategist questioned how strong Wilkerson's organization really is, despite winning a write-in election in 2006. That organization, they note, failed to gather enough signatures to get her name on the ballot in the first place, which is why she was forced to run that write-in campaign.

In a sticker effort there is additional pressure on a campaign's organization to identify voters that support its candidate, make sure they have the stickers to take to the polling place and make sure they actually vote on Election Day. In a high turnout election, strategists said, that is increasingly difficult because the organization has to accomplish that sequence with many voters. And many of those voters will be new voters unfamiliar with voting, let alone voting for a write-in candidate.

"In a low turnout election it's easier to reach the necessary number of voters and educate them in the use of a sticker," Shea said. "With the huge turnout expected in the minority community this presidential election, her chances are slim."

Wilkerson has also lost the backing of several prominent Bay State Democrats, including Gov. Deval Patrick, state Senate President Therese Murray and House Speaker Salvatore DiMasi. The Massachusetts Democratic Party has also thrown its support to Chang-Diaz and Boston Mayor Tom Menino, a Wilkerson backer, has pledged to keep his political operation out of the race, which means Wilkerson won't have as much organizational help in the field as she did during the primary.

"The primary shifted political momentum substantially to Chang-Diaz in the ongoing battle for this seat," Ansolabehere said. "Wilkerson lost several key supporters and endorsements after the primary."

One person who worked on Wilkerson's primary campaign and who requested anonymity to avoid hard feelings, said the campaign was strikingly disorganized in the primary. That person said it wouldn't be surprising if Wilkerson only had enough volunteers to put staff at polling places within her base to hand out stickers, rather than at all of the polling places throughout the district.

Still, a few strategists noted that the turnout in Wilkerson's base is difficult to predict, so it is hard to completely count her out. Since Obama is the first African American to be the presidential nominee from a major party, there is no historical precedence as to how high African American turnout will be.

"We are in uncharted waters," one longtime local Democratic strategist who did not want to be quoted picking sides, said. "Under any normal set of circumstances this would be a virtually impossible race to win for Wilkerson. But because Obama is on the ballot and because there will be a dramatic desire in the city for this historic election, if she can turn that into vote for Obama/Wilkerson, then maybe. Anything's possible."

But given all the things going against her, that strategist also had a difficult time seeing the path to victory.

"Would I bet on it?" the strategist added. "No, I wouldn't bet on it, not at all."