November 1, 2008 - 11:29

Races to watch on Tuesday

With the election just three days away, here is a breakdown of the races PolitickerMA.com is watching.

U.S. Senate: Republican challenger Jeff Beatty has been relentless in his attacks on U.S. Sen. John Kerry for, among other things, his 2002 vote to authorize the use of force in Iraq. Kerry, a Boston Democrat, has repeatedly parried those charges by pointing to the due diligence he did leading up to the vote, including a conversation with then Secretary of State Colin Powell, which he says was influential in his decision to vote for the resolution. Beatty has also been critical of Kerry's vote for the Wall Street bailout and has raised questions about Kerry's ties to insurance lender AIG. Kerry has been quick to rebut Beatty's charges though, and Beatty has yet to make a dent in Kerry's substantial lead (30+ points) in the polls. So much so, that Kerry is campaigning for Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama in New Hampshire on Saturday and is appearing as a surrogate for Obama on Meet the Press this Sunday. Can Beatty earn more than the 31 percent Kerry's primary challenger, Ed O'Reilly, received? Is that 31 percent the anti-Kerry base?

Question 1: This ballot question, which once looked like it would be an exciting one to watch, could end up being a dud on Election Day. The Coalition for our Communities, the organization opposing the measure that would abolish the state income tax, has spent significantly more money (TV ads, radio ads, etc.) to defeat the measure than the Committee for Small Government, the organization behind the question, has spent on trying to get it passed. The most recent 7News/Suffolk University poll showed undecideds breaking against the measure, with 59 percent of respondents saying they oppose it, 26 percent saying they support it and 14 percent saying they are undecided. The supporters of the measure hope to capitalize on Bay State voters' discontent with Beacon Hill, which raises the question of how recent events could influence the vote. Will Gov. Deval Patrick's recent budget cuts help or hurt this question's chances? Could state Sen. Dianne Wilkerson's arrest on corruption charges sour voters opinion of Beacon Hill to the point where they no longer trust the state government with their tax dollars?

Question 2: The state's law enforcement personnel, district attorneys, and Attorney General Martha Coakley, have ramped up their efforts in these final few days to make sure this measure, which would decriminalize possession of small amounts of marijuana, doesn't pass. The most recent poll shows, though, that the Committee for Sensible Marijuana Policy, which supports the measure, holds a nearly a 20-point lead, though the race is tightening. The proponents of the measure have also been running two TV ads that provide testimonials from retired Boston Police officers on why they support the measure.

Question 3: This ballot question, which would prohibit dog racing in Massachusetts, may come down to the wire. The Committee to Protect Dogs, which supports the measure, has run a tough campaign, raising significant funds to compete with the coffers of the dog tracks. The committee has run two television ads and points to statistics of inhumane treatment at the tracks. The opponents of the measure have disputed those statistics and have said closing the tracks would cost the state both revenue and jobs, a message that is likely to resonate in this political climate. The supporters of the measure also took a hit when the Boston Globe urged voters to vote against the measure, but polling shows this one will likely be close on Election Day.

1st Congressional District: Somewhat like Beatty, West Springfield Republican Nathan Bech has been quick to criticize Congressman John Olver for his vote on the bailout plan. In fact, Bech has been quick to criticize Olver for just about everything. It is worth noting that the 1st District was held by Republicans, most recently Silvio Conte, until Olver was elected in 1991. Bech, a veteran of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, has been outmatched by Olver financially  and has loaned his campaign more than $60,000.

Norfolk, Bristol and Middlesex state Senate: Democrats have eyed taking back this seat since state Sen. Scott Brown won it after Cheryl Jacques resigned. This year, the Democrats tapped Needham psychologist Sara Orozco to take on Brown, who many believe is eying higher state office. Orozco has trailed in polls, but her campaign is counting on record Democratic turnout in support of presidential nominee Barack Obama. The Brown campaign, however, notes that Brown survived another high turnout election, when John Kerry was the Democratic nominee in 2004. Orozco has also trailed Brown in fundraising.

Middlesex-Worcester state Senate: This race pits Marlborough Republican Steven Levy against Acton State Rep. Jamie Eldridge in a fight for Democratic state Sen. Pam Resor's seat. Eldridge has an advantage in that his hometown, Acton, is where Resor, who endorsed him, is from. Eldridge has also raised a lot more money than Levy, and his pre-election finance report showed that he had  in excess of 13 times the campaign cash of his opponent going into the final two weeks.

Middlesex-2 House: Republican Paul Avella and Democrat Jim Arciero are battling for state Rep. Geoff Hall's seat in this race. Arciero is a longtime Beacon Hill aide from the district's biggest city, Westford. Avella is a military veteran and member of Littleton's School Committee. The two candidates have raised and spent similar amounts of money, with Avella spending chunks on television ads and mail, hoping to capitalize on voters' distaste for Beacon Hill. Avella also picked up the endorsement of the Lowell Sun this week. Arciero did report having more money going into the final two weeks before Election Day, and several Democratic sources are counting on his experience as a political operative to push him over the top.

Middlesex-4 House: Republicans are looking to this seat to be a possible pick up this year. Marlborough Republican Arthur Vigeant is facing off against Marlborough Democrat Danielle Gregoire in this race to fill state Rep. Stephen LeDuc's vacated seat. Gregoire is a young (she's 29) former aide to LeDuc and Vigeant is 15-year member of the Marlborough City Council.  Gregoire had more left in her bank account to spend in the final two weeks ($9,000 compared to $4,400) but has raised ($24,600 compared to $40,600) and spent ($15,600 compared to $37,200) considerably less than Vigeant over the course of the race.

Middlesex-8 House: With Republican state Rep. Paul Loscocco vacating this seat, Democrats are hoping for a pickup in this race to add to their already sizable majority. Republicans, however, believe they have a strong candidate in Dan Haley, who was Kerry Healey's chief of staff. Holliston Democrat Carolyn Dykema thumped her primary opponent, Edward Mills, by over 40 points with significantly less money. That led some to believe she has a strong ground game. The two candidates have clashed on several issues, from Haley's support of Question 1, to whether they would be full-time legislators (Dykema would be, Haley would continue his law practice). For Dykema to win, she'll again need to stretch her dollars, as Haley has also significantly outraised and outspent and still has more money going into Election Day.

Middlesex-13 House: This rematch between Democrat state Rep. Tom Conroy and Republican former state Rep. Susan Pope is definitely one to watch. Conroy's upset of Pope, who served 10 years in the legislature, surprised many in 2006. However, Pope is back for round two this year and told PolitickerMA.com that she commissioned a poll earlier in the year that found 40 percent of respondents in the district still believe she was their state representative. The key to this race has been both candidates arguing that they are the most effective legislator for the district. Conroy, who vowed to run a strictly positive campaign, has pointed to legislation he has sponsored and supported, while Pope has said she is more well-known in the district. Pope has proven to be an effective fundraiser, outraising and outspending Conroy.

Middlesex-1 House: Could Republican state Rep. Robert Hargraves be this year's Susan Pope? Hargraves, a longtime state representative, is facing off against Groton Democrat Virginia Wood this year. Hargraves is said to be well-liked and very well-respected in the district, but in a Democratic year, this could be a seat that the Democrats pick up. Wood has loaned nearly $18,000 to her campaign and has spent more than double what Hargraves has over the course of the race. But Hargraves has a significant war chest to fall back on, and reported $40,000 cash on hand going into the final two weeks. Wood had just less than $3,000 left in her account.

Middlesex-31 House: This has been an exciting race to watch. With Democratic state Rep. Paul Casey vacating the seat, three candidates have thrown their hats into the ring: Democrat Jason Lewis, Republican Brian O'Connor and Independent Chad Riley. Riley has been relentless in his criticism of Lewis going so far as to call him a socialist because he is endorsed by the progressive group Mass Alliance. Lewis has been quick to respond to Riley's charges while O'Connor has stayed above the fray, to some extent. Some sources believe the district is more conservative than Lewis is, but in a Democratic year, Lewis could have an edge. O'Connor believes Riley, who used to be a Democrat will take votes from Lewis, making him more vulnerable. Lewis has been the best fundraiser of the group, but he also faced a tough primary against Michael Rotondi. Nevertheless, Lewis reported raising and spending the most money on his pre-election finance report, but Riley had the most left to spend going into the last two weeks.

Middlesex-37 House: This race for Democratic state Rep. Jamie Eldridge's seat pits Lunenburg Democrat Jen Benson against Boxborough Independent-cum-Republican Kurt Hayes. Hayes has been critical of Benson and has touted his business experience as a reason why he would best represent the district. Hayes has also been savvy in handling the media, often pitching stories that make Benson look bad (the debate scheduling mishap is a prime example of this). But Benson has been focused on her ground game and canvassing, and several sources believe Benson may have the edge in a Democratic year. Benson has also raised more than double the amount Hayes has, has spent more than three times more than Hayes and still has a war chest nearly double the size of Hayes' going into the final two weeks of the election.

Bristol-2 House: This race presents another opportunity for the Democrats to pick-up a seat, as Attleboro Democrat Bill Bowles and Attleboro Republican George Ross compete for Republican state Rep. John Lepper's seat. Bowles points to his experience on Attleboro's Finance Committee as qualifying him to best address the number one issue on voters' mind: the economy. Ross has questioned that experience and Bowles' leadership abilities. Ross has proven to be the better fundraiser, both outraising and outspending Bowles. But Bowles went into the final two weeks of campaign with a slight edge in cash on hand.

Hampden-2 House: With Republican state Rep. Mary Rogeness stepping down, this is the third open seat where the Democrats could expand their majority. Democratic candidate Brian Ashe, of Longmeadow, has received $1,500 from the Democratic State Committee to help in his race. The Republican candidate William Scibelli, also of Longmeadow, made news early in the cycle by accusing Ashe of ducking debates.  Scibelli has raised significantly more money than Ashe ($52,500 compared to $16,200) but has spent most of it, leaving him with just $1,400 going into the final two weeks. Lucky for him, Ashe also reported just $1,500 left in his bank account in his pre-election report.

Middlesex-3 House: Stow Democrat Kate Hogan is hoping to keep this seat in her party's column since state Rep. Patricia Walrath stepped down. Hogan is facing off against Hudson Republican Sonny Parente. Based on fundraising alone, this looks like it could be a competitive race, as both have raised and spent similar amounts. The Democratic State Committee has also funneled $1,500 into Hogan's campaign coffer.

Are we missing any? Please leave any other races you're watching in the comments section below.

Jeremy P. Jacobs is a PolitickerMA.com Reporter and can be reached via email at noreply@politicker.com.

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