November 6, 2008 - 11:54

Election wrap-up: After Beatty’s loss, is there a Republican who can win?

U.S. Sen. John Kerry's trouncing of Republican challenger Jeff Beatty left some questioning what it would take for a Republican to run successfully in a statewide race.

Analysts told PolitickerMA.com there's still the possibility of a Republican senator from Massachusetts, but to have a legitimate shot, a candidate from the state's minority party would need to stand on a strong, well-communicated platform.

Kerry defeated Beatty by 35 percentage points, according to the Boston Globe. Beatty, like Kerry's primarily challenger, Ed O'Reilly, earned just 31 percent of the vote.

Steven Grossman, a Boston Democratic strategist and former chairman of the Democratic National Committee, said he doesn't believe Massachusetts voters dismiss Republican candidates out of hand.

"I don't think Massachusetts just reacts against a Republican candidate," Grossman said. "But Republicans don't have a very deep bench."

Several analysts noted that in the case of taking on Kerry, 31 percent has now solidified as the anti-Kerry or protest vote.

Many analysts who did not want to be named because they did not want to pile on Beatty after his loss said Beatty chose to attack Kerry at every opportunity instead of offering substantive alternatives.

Beatty's campaign was indeed marked by his criticisms of Kerry. He was relentless in his criticism of Kerry's 2002 vote to authorize the use of force in Iraq, which Beatty said Kerry cast to position himself for his presidential run. In their first debate, Beatty said Kerry had "blood on his hands" for the vote, a charge that Kerry said was "disgusting."

Beatty also hammered away at Kerry for his vote for the Wall Street bailout bill, which Beatty said didn't protect taxpayers. Beatty did not, however, offer many alternatives, saying that he would have pushed for calling on executives to return severance packages and a federal investigation into what went wrong.

"If you had a viable centrist alternative, you could beat Kerry," said Thomas Whalen, a political scientist at Boston University. "A lot of Democrats have been upset with him. But what is the alternative? This guy that just drops into Massachusetts?"

On Election Night, Beatty told PolitickerMA.com that he believed he lost because he wasn't able to effectively communicate his message.

"We just didn't get our message out in front of enough people," he said.

Beatty, who was significantly overmatched by Kerry financially, was frustrated throughout the campaign by the difficulty he had getting his message across. Following his first debate with Kerry, a reporter asked him if, since he was then trailing Kerry by 30 points in polls, maybe his message just wasn't resonating with voters.

"We're actually where we thought we'd be two weeks before the election. Where have you guys been for the past six months?" Beatty shot back, that frustration evident in his voice. "We've been out on the campaign trail."

Dan Payne, a veteran Boston Democratic strategist, said the cards were stacked against Beatty.

"It is very, very, very hard to beat an incumbent member of the House or Senate in Massachusetts," he said. "The default position in MA is liberal Democratic -- it's ideological, cultural, ethnic, and historical.  The last two serious challenges were Bill Weld taking on John Kerry, and Mitt Romney challenging Ted Kennedy. A guy like Beatty, with zero organization, weak senatorial credentials, no credibility, a flimsy rationale, and ridiculously little money was doomed from the start."

With rumors floating that Kerry is on Democratic President-elect Barack Obama's short list for secretary of state, the speculation has already started over who would run for his vacated seat. Beatty didn't close the door on the possibility Tuesday night, and Grossman said that the right Republican could have a chance, though he didn't mention Beatty.

"It takes a republican with big bold exciting ideas about how to move Massachusetts forward in a 21st century economy coupled with enough charisma and enough money so that the three building blocks of a campaign are maintained," Grossman said.

Grossman said Charlie Baker, the former aide to Gov. William Weld and CEO of Harvard Pilgrim Healthcare, would be the GOP's top choice.

"He is seen by many people as the type of guy who has charisma, could raise the money and leadership in state government and healthcare has been distinguished," Grossman said.

Jeremy P. Jacobs is a PolitickerMA.com Reporter and can be reached via email at noreply@politicker.com.

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