As Beacon Hill continues to debate how to pay off more than $2 billion in Big Dig debt, an increasingly political fight is brewing between Gov. Deval Patrick and members of the legislature that has many observers speculating that no one will emerge unscathed.

"Expect a circus," said Dennis Hale, a political scientist at Boston College. "It's not going to be very pretty."

At issue is the Massachusetts Turnpike Authority's plan, backed by Gov. Deval Patrick, to eliminate tolls west of Route 128 except at the state's border but double tolls at tunnels that service Logan International Airport to $7. That plan has been criticized by several lawmakers. House Speaker Salvatore DiMasi has said that an increase in the gas tax would be more appropriate - setting up a potential showdown between DiMasi and Patrick reminiscent of the Patrick's casino bill, which would have brought three casinos to Massachusetts but was opposed by DiMasi and failed to pass in early 2008.

"This does feel like a repeat of the casino gambling controversy; it is driven by the need to increase revenue," said Steven Ansolabehere, a political scientist at Harvard. "The political situation in the State House is somewhat different, but not markedly so."

Hale noted that the governor's plan was destined to anger those that would be affected by the toll hike and left the door open for DiMasi.

"I was surprised by the governor's toll hike proposal when it came out a while ago, since it is obviously burdensome to a small fraction of the public that benefits from the bridge/tunnel/highway network in metro Boston," he said. "A gas tax increase would be much fairer, as DiMasi rather quickly realized."

Several analysts noted that both a gas taxes and toll hikes are politically dangerous. However, in the current debate, some said the public appears appears to be on DiMasi's side and sees the gas tax as the lesser of two evils. Following a hearing on the possibility of leasing the Pike to a private company last Wednesday, a "Stop the Pike Hike" rally took place in East Boston.

"I think the gas tax increase will end up prevailing because the communities that would be affected by yet another toll hike are already going ballistic," said Dorie Clark, a Somerville Democratic strategist. "They've taken it on the chin for a long time, and are going to snap if they have to bear the burden solely again."

Compounding the issue, is the public's shrinking confidence in Beacon Hill. DiMasi is currently facing an ethics investigation and the arrests of state Sen. Dianne Wilkerson and Boston City Councilor Chuck Turner may have soured the public's opinion of Beacon Hill, which was already low, analysts said.

"The whole political class is in even worse odor than they were before," Hale said. "It is going to be very hard to get any kind of sensible discussion of the fiscal problems in this atmosphere."

The atmosphere of corruption, coupled with the specter of tax increases, has some state Republicans chomping at the bit.

"Pick your political poison, Gov. Patrick," said Rob Gray, a GOP strategist. "Major toll hikes or a gas tax increase are equally toxic for a governor. Toll hikes dole out more pain to less people; gas tax hikes less pain to more people-but they're both still painful and permanent."

However, Clark said that most residents recognize the financial crisis the state now faces and would be willing to accept the increased gas tax, especially since gas prices have dropped recently.

"If the gas tax goes through, I see the political fallout as minimal," she said.

Veteran Democratic strategist Mike Shea, who once worked as the state's assistant secretary of Transportation and Construction, blamed Republican governors for fueling the misconception that tax increases can be avoided.

"For sixteen years, four Republican governors sold a majority of the electorate on the snake oil pitch that there is never a need for taxes," Shea said. "Their legacy is a $20 billion transportation infrastructure repair bill, and a legislature that views tax hikes the way Superman views Kryptonite."

Shea noted that the governor and the Legislature must step up to put the interest of the commonwealth ahead of their political ambitions.

"What's needed now is the political courage to do what's right for the safety and economic future of the commonwealth, and that will probably require some combination of toll and gas tax increases," he said. "Legislators, and the governor, realize that Republican challengers will use such hikes as a rallying cry two years from now. That's where the courage comes in."

No matter what happens, the governor appears poised to take a hit. Patrick has said repeatedly that he plans to seek re-election in 2010 and that he expects a challenger. One of those challengers could be Treasurer Tim Cahill, who recently told the Boston Herald that he hasn't closed the door on challenging Patrick in the Democratic primary.

"We've already seen a drop in Patrick's popularity and, more importantly, a rise in his negative rating which is likely attributed to his massive toll hike plan," Gray said. "So toll hikes or a gas tax increase will be an anchor around his neck for 2010."

"Surely the whole thing will hurt the governor," Hale added. "But 2010 is still a long way off."