With $47.1 million in the bank and facing the best political landscape, save that in 2006, in recent memory, national Democrats made big news last week by reserving millions of dollars' worth of television ad space in 31 congressional districts. But those reservations won't actually turn into advertisements for months, unless the party feels compelled to jump on top of a particular race.

It is perhaps telling, then, that the first advertisement the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has chosen to run will hit the air in Pennsylvania, in a district held by a Democratic member of Congress. In fact, most observers agree, few long-time members of Congress are in more trouble than Rep. Paul Kanjorski, who will benefit from the new advertisements. In the process, Democrats are signaling the page of the hymnal many of their candidates will be singing come November.

Kanjorski's 11th Congressional District, situated along the border with New Jersey about an hour and a half north of Philadelphia, is a working-class area that comprises most of four counties and the city of Scranton. Particularly hard-hit by the sagging economy, residents of the district earn far less than the average Pennsylvanian and are slightly more likely to hold blue collar jobs.

A socially conservative population, made up largely of ethnic whites, the district should be perfect for Democratic candidates. The party picked up similar seats in upstate New York and around the rest of Pennsylvania, and this year seem poised to beat more. Kanjorski, too, should not be in too much trouble; a 12-term incumbent, he is more accustomed to winning two-thirds of the vote than fighting for re-election. In the last serious race he had, against Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta in 2002, Kanjorski still won 56 percent of the vote, and in 2006, against an underfunded Republican, he took 72 percent.

This year, though, Barletta is back, and he's one of Republicans' best potential candidates. As mayor of a small town of 23,000, Barletta won national attention for his drive to make the city as unwelcoming as possible for illegal immigrants, including making renting an apartment to the undocumented a crime and making English the town's official language. He became something of a national celebrity, appearing on Fox News and CNN shows, and his announcement of candidacy drew television cameras from local affiliates and national networks in New York.

Kanjorski beat Barletta handily once, but newfound celebrity has made the Democrat nervous. A poll for Barletta's campaign showed the mayor leading the congressman by a 47 percent to 42 percent margin in late March, and though Democrats insist the race is still Kanjorski's to lose, national Republicans can hardly contain their giddiness at the prospect of knocking off an incumbent who has held the seat since 1984.

Democrats may talk a big game, but they are clearly worried as well. The ad running against the Hazleton mayor seeks to tie Barletta to one of the least popular politicians in America. "George Bush has a Friend in Pennsylvania -- Lou Barletta," the ad begins, citing Barletta's support for the Bush tax cuts, privatization of Social Security and for chairing Bush's campaign in Lucerne County.

Too, Kanjorski is bringing in fundraising help, as Politicker.com's Alex Isenstadt reported on Tuesday that House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) will host a high-dollar fundraiser at a Washington steak house. Barletta had raised $330,000 in the second fundraising quarter, leaving him with $320,000 in the bank, and though Kanjorski had not released his own fundraising numbers by press time, he ended the first quarter with $1.8 million in the bank.

Still, sensing a weakness, Republicans pounced on the new ad campaign. "Democrats in Washington are clearly worried about having to defend Paul Kanjorski's multitude of gaffes and unethical transgressions," National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Ken Spain said in a statement. "Representing everything that is wrong with Washington tends to make a politician vulnerable."

Democrats hit back, denying that early advertisements were anything but due diligence. "We have been aggressive all cycle, acting early and often. This is no different," DCCC spokesman Doug Thornell said. "Lou Barletta is trying to mislead voters and we will not allow him to undergo an extreme makeover about his strong support of President Bush's failed economic policies, tax cuts for the rich, and privatizing Social Security."

The advertisement, and the fact that both campaigns and parties acknowledge that the race is actually competitive, will demonstrate two important factors that could determine the outcome of several other races around the country this year. Whichever factor prevails in November will determine whether Barletta steals the seat from Kanjorski, or if the Democrat holds on for two more years.

Working in Barletta's favor is the issue of immigration, on which the Republican has a reservoir of good will with working-class voters who still say it's an important topic to them. Though many have wondered whether immigration is an effective vote-mover -- ask anyone who believes it is to name a district that actually flipped to the harder-line immigration candidate and they will come up blank -- few candidates have been as prominently associated with the topic as Barletta. Though Kanjorski, too, has a strong anti-illegal immigration record, a fact national Democrats point out as frequently as possible, if immigration is going to be a defining issue in Pennsylvania, it will work on Barletta's behalf.

Working on Kanjorski's favor, as the DCCC's ad shows, is the fact that President Bush is still in office. A new ABC News/Washington Post poll out this week showed Bush cratering to a new low in his job performance ratings, leaving him with an approval rating of just 30.4 percent in the latest Real Clear Politics Average. Democrats have refered to the current crop of GOP officeholders as "Bush Republicans," and if the early attacks on Barletta are any indication, it's a theme that will recur in advertisements attacking Republican candidates across the country.

"This ad is an attempt to make this race a referendum on [President] Bush and Barletta. And given that the NRCC and Barletta almost certainly don't have the cash to answer right away, Democrats are hoping that their ad defines Barletta before Barletta is able to define Kanjorski," said Tim Sahd, editor of House Race Hotline.

Too, said Sahd, the early attack ads against a Republican challenger should serve as a reminder to both parties and to political observers that 2008 is not 2006, when Democrats did not lose a single seat in the House or Senate. "It's interesting that Democrats have been forced to spend their first TV ad dollars to help save an incumbent, despite the fact that they've been on the offensive most of the cycle," he said. "It tells us that while this is shaping up to be a banner year for Democrats, they still have to mind the store."

The wedge issue of immigration has so far proven a paper tiger for Republicans. They are also the last party to have run a campaign against a two-term president who will no longer be on the ballot, when Democrats ended up gaining a seat in 2000, indicating that as much as voters dislike President Bush, they may not take their vote as a referendum on his eight years in office. But so far, both parties have focused on those issues, framing the contest their own way.

For now, perhaps nowhere is the clash of two opposing electoral themes more evident than in Scranton, Wilkes-Barre and Hazleton. Whichever side of the debate, and indeed whichever debate itself, prevails in November will indicate not only who can win in Pennsylvania's 11th district, but who can win in a dozen or more districts around the country.

 Reid Wilson, national columnist for Politicker.com, is also an associate editor of RealClearPolitics.com and covers Senate, House and governors' races at PoliticsNation.com. Contact him at reid@realclearpolitics.com.