Political consultant Ryan Erwin, who’s managing former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney’s Nevada campaign, has some very serious doubts about the new American Research Group poll that shows Romney taking the lead in Nevada at 29 percent, followed closely by a newly-insurgent Mike Huckabee at 23 percent.

“It is extraordinarily difficult to poll for the Nevada Caucus,” Erwin said today.  “It’s hard to poll for any caucus, but Iowa at least has a history and a better concept of who’s actually going to caucus.”

“As much as I’m glad that Gov. Romney is in first, I don’t put a whole lot of stock in the poll.  I think he is in first, but I believe that is based on our voter ID and a number of other things.  The numbers probably reflect the mood of some people, but as I said, I just don’t put a lot of stock in their complete accuracy, especially considering how much they’ve moved over the last several months.”

Erwin considers Huckabee’s surge in this newest poll to be an aberration. 

“In our voter ID calls, we’re not seeing any movement [for Huckabee] whatsoever.  That doesn’t mean that there isn’t some movement.  I think the media that he’s gotten over his “surge” in Iowa and some other places, I’m sure has had some effect with voters.  We’re just not seeing any movement in Nevada for him.  The thousands of people that we’re talking to aren’t discussing him in their top three, four or even five people in Nevada, and I just have a hard time believing they’ve got a better sample than what we’re seeing.”