Now that the Democrats have (finally) determined their party's nominee the battle for Nevada's five Electoral College votes begins in earnest. Indeed, both Barack Obama and John McCain have already stumped in the state and McCain has television and Spanish language radio advertisements up. In what follows is my assessment of both candidates' strengths and weaknesses in the Silver State five months out.

Obama's Strengths:

At this point, Obama has five major advantages in Nevada. Most importantly, Obama is running in a favorable campaign climate. Despite what will be the McCain campaign's best efforts to shift the campaign agenda to national security, surveys over the last year consistently indicate that domestic concerns, particularly the economy, are the overwhelming priorities of voters. This provides a foreign policy neophyte such as Obama with a favorable environment in which to compete, particularly in a state that leads the world in foreclosures, has a high number of uninsured, and a rising unemployment rate.

Second, because of Nevada's early caucuses, Obama already has in place a campaign operation organized down to the precinct level. Moreover, because Hillary Clinton quickly garnered the support of the state's Democratic establishment, Obama was forced to organize outside the traditional party structure; which makes his near victory in the Nevada caucuses all the more impressive. Now that he is the nominee he should be able to combine what his campaign built in January with a revitalized state party organization to develop the most formidable Democratic operation in Nevada history.

Third, as compared to Democratic presidential candidates in the recent past, Obama will be competing in a state with 50,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans. Assuming that most of Hillary Clinton's backers come back into the fold, this provides Obama and the Democrats with a cushion that may offset the typical Republican turnout advantages. Moreover, there are still a lot of Democratic leaning voters, particularly in Clark County, that have yet to be mobilized. Most notably, single women and young voters who proved to be a reliable constituency in his securing the nomination can still be tapped in mass in Nevada. Obama's ability to expand the electorate coupled with his potential to cut the margins outside of Clark County makes the math rather daunting for John McCain.

Fourth, while Obama's inexperience is a clear liability (see below), his limited time in Washington DC allows him to credibly play the outsider, agent of change card that is likely to resonate with a good chunk of the 80 percent of the American public who think that the country is on the wrong track. In contrast, John McCain is a candidate, who despite his maverick reputation (again, see below), has spent his entire adult life receiving a government paycheck either in the military or in Congress.

Lastly, presuming that Obama opts out of the public financing program, the Obama campaign's incredible fundraising prowess will provide him with the resources to quickly respond to any attempts to Swift-boat him, match McCain in the battleground states, and force McCain and the GOP to spend money in states that Democrats typically do not contest (such as Virginia, Georgia, and North Carolina). If the cash-strapped McCain campaign is unable to improve its fundraising, it may be forced to lower its ad buys in some swing states. And given the dynamics in the state and Nevada's relatively small number of Electoral College votes, it would not be surprising if Nevada gets bumped down the GOP priority list.

McCain's Strengths:

The situation in Nevada is not so positive for McCain. Specifically, I see McCain holding two advantages in the state. First, until proven otherwise, Nevada still remains a Republican leaning state. More to the point, the Democratic presidential candidate has only carried Nevada twice in the last ten presidential elections and then only because of a strong third party candidate who siphoned votes away from Bush senior and Dole. Moreover, despite 2006 being the best Democratic year in decades here, the GOP still won the state's two biggest prizes: the governor's race and CD3.

Second, as the McCain campaign takes a look at emerging voting blocks in the state they will see a lot of bad news. Clearly, the GOP has lost its appeal among young voters and women; two groups that have consistently increased their turnout rates over the past handful of election cycles and as noted above, are likely to be the target of increased mobilization efforts by the Democrats. However, the state's emerging Latino voting population is one group that may prove movable, at least in part, to the GOP column. Thus, given that Obama has clearly struggled to gain support among Latinos, it is not surprising that McCain is already up on Spanish radio. Indeed, as McCain and his campaign survey the state they are likely to conclude that their best, and perhaps only, chance of winning Nevada is a full court press on the state's Latinos. Of course, this will require a balancing act as too much attention to Latinos may further alienate anti-immigration Republicans that are an important part of the state's GOP coalition. Moreover, it is unclear what Latino surrogates the GOP will deploy here who are capable of matching the appeal of prominent state Latino leaders such as Ruben Kihuen and Catherine Cortez Masto and national Democrats like Bill Richardson and Antonio Villaraigosa who are likely to be regulars in the Silver State in the coming months.

Obama's Weaknesses:

While the advantages that Obama holds in Nevada may go a long way to his winning the state, his candidacy has a number of potential weaknesses that the Republicans will seek to exploit both here and nationally. Foremost of these being is that Obama is not well-known and as he puts it, he is a walking Rorschach test that allows voters to project what they want on to him. This also means that the GOP will seek to fill in the gaps by spending loads of money to define Obama as an inexperienced and naïve liberal who is out of touch with American values and is a threat to national security. Moreover, because of the Democrat's protracted nomination fight, most of the opposition research has already be done for the Republicans compliments of Hillary Clinton (whose various comments disparaging Obama are likely to be staples of GOP attack ads in the coming months).

A related problem for Obama is his lack of experience. Despite all the evidence indicating that American's are ready to turn the page on the last two decades of partisan infighting and inability of national politicians to address the pressing problems that are all too obvious to the American public, experience still remains a significant consideration in many voters' calculations. Moreover, among recent "outsider" candidates who have won the White House (i.e., Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan, and Bill Clinton), all had executive experience; a quality that Obama clearly lacks.

A third problem for Obama that is likely to be exacerbated in the coming months as he seeks to unify the Democratic coalition is that his once sky-high level of support among independents is waning. This is particularly worrisome in a state like Nevada with its large number of unaffiliated voters. At the same time, McCain has done very little to date to burnish is appeal among independent voters as he as instead chosen to embrace orthodox Republican positions on social issues, the economy, and foreign policy in hopes of soothing concerns about him among the party's rank-and-file.

Last and certainly not least, is the race issue. While it seems like a million years ago that the pundit class was debating if Obama was black enough to win the support of African-Americans, now the conventional wisdom has been turned on its ear and has focused (ad nauseum) on Obama's ability to appeal to white, particularly blue-collar, non-college educated, voters. My guess is that the race issue will be less salient in Nevada where half the population is non-white. Nonetheless, for many voters born before and during the Civil Rights Movement, race still remains a significant consideration; something that is not going to be lost on the GOP that ruthlessly used the Southern Strategy to great effect to peal-off blue-collar whites from the Democratic coalition in the 1970s, 80s, and 90s.

McCain Weaknesses:

However, the potential landmines facing Obama in Nevada are nothing compared to those that John McCain must wade through. In addition to running in about as an unfavorable political environment as possible thanks to the Bush administration and the hang-over remaining from the 2006 repudiation of the GOP majority in Congress, there is the issue of McCain's Nevada bonafides: he is pro-Yucca and anti-gaming and has already flip-flopped on taxes and immigration; two considerations that are more-or-less litmus tests for many Silver State Republicans.

Second and perhaps more telling, after ignoring Nevada in the period leading up to the January caucuses, McCain has squandered the last few months by failing to build any meaningful organization in the state. Instead, it appears the McCain will rely heavily on the RNC's coordinated campaign in Nevada that is being run by a former operative from that electoral juggernaut, the Giuliani presidential campaigns (you know the campaign that spent $60 million to win a grand total of zero delegates).

McCain must also contend with the state's libertarians, particularly the Ron Paul supporters, who may very well splinter the state GOP (I, for one, cannot wait for the state Republican convention do-over). As has been discussed in this space before, the libertarian wing of the party is not going to go quietly into the night. Instead, many in that camp see 2008 as a battle for the heart and sole of the Republican Party and if John McCain is a casualty of this intra-party battle, so be it. To make matters worse for McCain, the libertarians are about the only component of the traditional GOP coalition in Nevada that is motivated and organized. Unfortunately for McCain, that energy appears to be directed towards undoing his electoral prospects in Nevada.

Fourth, while McCain has largely made his national reputation by projecting himself as a maverick and reformer, the DNC and left leaning 527s have already begun to take aim at this reputation (and in so doing, have taken a page out of the Karl Rove playbook that seeks to turn the opposition's strengths into weaknesses). So far, McCain has taken the bait as he spent a good deal of the last month and a half not building a national campaign organization, but instead, purging all of the lobbyists from his campaign staff. Moreover, because of weak fundraising, McCain increasingly is dependent upon the RNC to get him through the summer and is wife's corporate jet to fly him around the country; so much for not being beholden to party and K Street.

Lastly, it is unclear who is going to be McCain's Nevada surrogates. I doubt that he will be trotting out either President Bush or Jim Gibbons to lead the charge. The state's other prominent Republicans also will be of little help. For instance, Senator John Ensign will be too busy trying to limit the GOP's Senate losses, Jon Porter will be doing everything possible to hold off Dina Titus, and Dean Heller will be contending with his rematch with Jill Derby. To date, McCain's biggest advocate in the state has been well, you guessed, another lobbyist - Sig Rogich.

So there you have it. At least on paper, it appears that Barack Obama holds the advantage here. Of course, five months is a lifetime in politics. But assuming that there is no game changing events in the interim, I would not be surprised if McCain writes off Nevada early in the fall, particularly if he is unable to gain traction among Latino voters.