How will third party candidates impact presidential election?

July 7, 2008 - 16:45

How will third party candidates impact presidential election?

By Wally Edge

Ralph Nader recently filed with Nevada's Secretary of State to appear on the presidential ballot as an independent candidate, but will anyone notice?

Past statewide elections confirm the old adage that every vote counts. When Harry Reid (D-Searchlight) first ran for U.S. Senate in 1974, he lost by just 624 votes to Republican Paul Laxalt, who also lost his first U.S. Senate bid by fewer than 100 votes ten years earlier. In 1998, Reid edged out then U.S. Rep. John Ensign (R-Las Vegas) by 428 votes. In both instances, third party candidates drew many times the margin of victory and potentially had a significant impact on the outcome.

Could Nader's candidacy make a similar difference? History suggests it may not.

Running as the Green party candidate in 2000, Nader garnered 15,008 votes -- representing about 2.5% of the vote total -- but less than George W. Bush's 3.5 percent margin of victory over Vice President Al Gore. Despite an even closer race in 2004 in which Bush defeated U.S. Sen. John Kerry (D-Ill.) by 2.6%, the 4,838 votes cast for Nader represented just 0.6% of the vote -- and one fourth of his impact from the prior election.

Although Libertarian candidate Michael Badnarik attracted even fewer votes than Nader in 2004, circumstances are very different this year. The Libertarian party is running a prominent conservative, former U.S. Rep. Bob Barr (R-Ga.), and his running mate is Las Vegas native and TV celebrity Wayne Allyn Root. Especially in Nevada, it's possible that U.S. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) has more to worry about from third party candidates than his opponent.

Wally Edge can be reached via email at noreply@politicker.com.

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