DENVER – One of the Silver State’s noted political observers threw cold water on a surprising poll that showed Democrat Jill Derby running a surprisingly strong challenge to U.S. Rep. Dean Heller (R-Carson City).

“I find that poll hard to believe,” said newspaper columnist Jon Ralston, referring to the survey released last week finding Derby within five points of the first term Heller. The same survey in June found Derby 15 points behind.

“I don’t know whether they oversampled Washoe County, which Jill Derby beat Dean Heller last time but then got crushed in rural Nevada, which is the majority of the district,” Ralston continued. “But that poll doesn’t sound right to me. If that poll is right, though, that is saying something that no one else picked up on.”

Derby, a former state Democratic Party chair, is challenging Heller after narrowly losing a battle for the seat in 2006. The district has historically trended Republican.

“If Jill Derby wins that race, that means Democrats are going to have like 300 seats in the House, that’s how unlikely I think that race is,” said Ralston.

The Las Vegas-based Ralston is here to cover the happenings of the Nevada delegation at the Democratic National Convention.