In Nevada, the biggest race in 2010 begins on Nov. 4, 2008.

That's when three of the GOP's top prospects for derailing U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Searchlight) - U.S. Reps. Jon Porter (R-Henderson), Dean Heller (R-Carson City) and state Sen. Joe Heck (R-Henderson) - are up for re-election. Reid is something of a political behemoth and even in a moderate-to marginally conservative state will be difficult to knock off, analysts say, and strategists from both parties agree that these potential Reid challengers would be greatly assisted by victories.

"There's always an advantage to being an incumbent when you're running for something else," said Ryan Erwin, a Nevada-based GOP consultant. Maintaining an incumbency status provides the institutional stature needed to knock off an incumbent as powerful and politically savvy as Reid, Erwin explained.

Of the three, it is Porter who arguably has the toughest track to re-election. The third-term Republican is facing off against Dina Titus, the minority leader in the state Senate who in 2006 waged a failed bid for governor. Titus enters the contest having carried the Las Vegas-area district in the 2006 and, perhaps more importantly, with Clark County's new 31,000 Democratic voter registration in her favor. Public polling shows the race tight, though with Porter in dangerous territory for an incumbent. Porter is struggling to rise above 40 percent in his internal polling, an indicator that worries some GOP strategists.

However, analysts argue that of the three it is Porter who has the least to lose from a November loss and the most to gain from a win.

"If Jon Porter survives his race with Dina Titus, he gets kind of a double boost because this is a race most people are saying is Dina Titus's to lose. It would, I think, show tremendous political resilience," argued Eric Herzik, a political scientist at the University of Nevada at Reno.

Erwin said that even with a loss Porter would still enter the 2010 Senate contest with a base of support from Clark County, the fastest-growing Democratic population center in the state. Porter could hold down Reid's margin of victory in the county, Ryan suggested.

Though a loss would be a blemish on Porter's electoral record, Herzik concluded, with an atmosphere currently as toxic for Republicans as it is, Porter would still be a contender for the Senate.  

"Right now we're focused on our election on Nov. 4," Porter campaign spokesman Matt Leffingwell said when asked about the prospect of running against Reid.

An aide to Heck was similarly mum. "At this point we're not even thinking about 2010," said Heck spokeswoman Tina Martin. "We're thinking about 2008 with the contentious race we're in now."

Heck, a Clark County physician who has served in the state Senate since 2004 and has served as vice chair of the Transportation and Homeland Security committees, is facing a challenge from Democrat Shirley Breeden for his Henderson-area seat. The contest has grown increasingly heated in recent weeks as Heck's campaign has accused the Nevada Democratic Party of wallpapering the district with misleading campaign mailers, while Breeden is painting Heck as dismissive of the state's medical facilities. With voter registration tilting in their direction, Democrats have said they are increasingly confident in their chances of knocking off Heck. At stake is control of the Senate, which state Republicans hold by a narrow 1-vote margin. 

Analysts say Heck would have advantages in a run against Reid, including a reputation as a moderate who has a record of working across party lines.

There is also speculation that Heck is considering a run for the governor's mansion in 2010. Sitting Republican Governor Jim Gibbons, whose personal life has been splayed across morning newspapers, has seen his personal approval rating fall through the floor and is widely seen as vulnerable to a challenge.

Heller, a first term incumbent, has also been mentioned as a potential Reid challenger. The Republican is facing a challenge from Jill Derby, a state university system regent who narrowly lost to Heller in a 2006 bid for the seat. Derby, who is benefitting from expanding Democratic registration numbers in Washoe County, has sought to paint Heller as a tool of President Bush. While the race is competitive, Heller appears to have an edge. An October survey conducted for the Reno Gazette-Journal found Heller leading 48 percent to 41 percent. Analysts say Heller has benefitted from his vote against the Wall Street bailout package.

Erwin, the Republican strategist, suggested that Heller had the easiest path to re-election of the three, and said that if he lost in November it would be part of a nationwide Democratic tidal wave. If Heller wanted to mount a 2010, Erwin argued, Republican voters wouldn't lay the blame at Heller's feet.

"Heller is a strong candidate if he wants to [run against Reid]. The question is: does he want to do it?" said Erwin, noting that Heller might be interested in making a run for governor instead.

A spokesperson for Heller did not return a call requesting comment.

Belief that an incumbent needs to retain his seat in November to run a credible challenge against Reid isn't uniform. State Sen. Bob Beers (R-Las Vegas), who was once mentioned as a potential Reid challenger but has since removed his name from the running, argued that an incumbent would find himself weighed down by the burdens of holding office.

"In a sense, if anyone doesn't win their re-election bids they'll have more time to campaign," Beers said in a telephone interview last week.

A few potential challengers, including North Las Vegas Mayor Michael Montandon and Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki, are not running for re-election this year. Reid aides say they expect the names of more possible Republican candidates to surface in the coming months.

But Democrats say that none of the Republicans mentioned are currently in a strong position to knock off Reid, who in the last five years has raised just south of $12 million for his campaign bank account.

"By today's standards, everyone's weak on the Republican side. There's no Republican in strong shape to take on Reid right now," said one Democratic strategist.

But, this strategist added, "That could change. And that could change in a big way."

Publicly, Reid has said he is not thinking about his re-election bid. 

"I'm not focused on that at all," Reid told PolitickerNV.com during the Democratic National Convention in August. "We're going to get (this cycle) over with. We've got another couple of years to go before I've got to start worrying about that."