If a new poll is any indication, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s path to re-election may not be as clear as his closest allies insist it is.

The survey, conducted by Research 2000 for the progressive blog Daily Kos found Reid narrowly leading Republican U.S. Rep. Jon Porter (R-Henderson) 46 percent to 40 percent in a prospective 2010 matchup. The poll also found Reid’s approval rating below the 40 percent mark.

How accurate a picture the survey provides is unclear. Using the Research 2000 firm, Daily Kos tested a smattering of races in 2008 with varying success. In Nevada, the site’s polling projected that Democrat Dina Titus would edge out Porter in the race for the state’s 2nd Congressional district 47 percent to 45 percent; Titus would end up winning 47 percent to 42 percent. But in the 3rd Congressional district, the site wrongly estimated one week before Election Day that Democrat Jill Derby was running neck-and-neck against Republican incumbent Dean Heller; Heller would emerge victorious by 10 points.

Reid allies would likely point out, meanwhile, that Markos Moulitsas, the proprietor of the Daily Kos Web site, has had an axe to grind with Reid ever since the Nevada senator let U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-Conn.) go with a slap on the wrist for backing Republican John McCain in the presidential race. For now, Reid’s campaign is taking the approach that the complaints from Moulitsas and others on the left over the Lieberman affair are inside baseball and over the heads of most voters.

“There will be a lot of polls between now and November 2010 but Sen. Reid doesn't focus on polls, he focuses on delivering results for the people of Nevada, and as majority leader he can do things for the state that no one else can,” Reid spokesman Jon Summers wrote in an e-mail message.

Poll results aside, Democrats close to Reid say Republicans will have a tough time knocking off the majority leader because of what they say is a thin bench. Two potential Reid opponents, state Sens. Joe Heck and Bob Beers, lost November re-election races. Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki, who has said he is likely to challenge Reid, is now under indictment from the state Attorney General’s office regarding his oversight of a billion dollar student loan program. Nevada Republican Party Chairwoman Sue Lowden is seen as unlikely to get in the race. And Porter, who has yet to make his 2010 intentions known, may be damaged goods after having been ousted from his seat in November.

“I think what they’re doing on their side is letting the dust settle, because they’re licking some serious wounds,” said one Democrat who is close to Reid.

While Republicans have pinpointed Reid’s race as one of their top targets for the 2010 cycle, another Reid ally argued that if the Democratic leader met his campaign’s internal fundraising goals and the GOP fails to recruit a strong candidate early, the contest could fall off the national radar screen.

But Republicans say they won’t let that happen. National Republicans view the race against Reid as payback for the Democrats’ treatment of Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell (K-Ky.). Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) aggressively targeted McConnell, heaping millions of dollars into television advertisements painting McConnell as an errand boy for President Bush. Publicly, Schumer reasoned that McConnell was fair game after Republicans targeted then-Democratic Senate Leader Tom Daschle in 2004, but Republicans privately bristle at Schumer’s move and see Reid as having helped to move the strings.

“We look forward to treating the Democratic leader the same way he treated the Republican leader,” said one GOP operative who is familiar with the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s planning for the next cycle.

Zach Moyle, the executive director for the Nevada Republican Party, disputed the idea that the state lacked strong potential challengers. While declining to mention any names, Moyle said GOP candidates would surface in the coming weeks. “We have an extremely deep bench,” he said. “We definitely don’t plan on putting up a lightweight against Reid.”

Moyle offered a preview of a likely line of attack against Reid, saying the senator had moved to far to the left for Nevada voters. “This is a guy who four years ago was campaigning with the slogan, “independent like Nevada.’ Now, he’s the leader of the Democratic Party,” said Moyle. “What we’ve seen is Harry Reid move further to the left, and that’s not something Nevada and this country wants.”

Democrats close to Reid say the leader has been planning for his re-election bid since 2004, when Republicans ousted Daschle, and say that he is taking an active role in overseeing the day-to-day operations of his political team. Summers, the Reid spokesman, explained that Reid had aimed for consistency in putting the team together, assembling a roster of longtime aides and advisers who are familiar with the Democrat’s operation. Former Chief of Staff Susan McCue has been dispatched to Nevada to serve as his lead consultant in the re-election effort, while political aide Jake Perry and former aide Jimmy Ryan, now a lobbyist for Citigroup, are overseeing the campaign’s fundraising. Rebecca Lambe, a former executive director for the Nevada Democratic Party, is playing a key role organizing efforts in the state. Veteran Democratic ad man Jim Margolis is serving as Reid’s media consultant.

Reid’s early efforts have been focused on fundraising, with his lead consultants conferring with Barack Obama’s political team about building a donor base. The campaign is aiming to hit the holiday jackpot, with Christmastime fundraisers in the works.