Nevada: Nv-2

Just over half of all active Nevada voters have already cast their ballots in early and absentee voting, but it's the half that has yet to vote that will make all the difference in two closely-watched Nevada congressional contests.

With less than a week to go there is much about the 2008 election that remains up in the air. While all indicators point to a good night for the Democrats both in Nevada and nationally, exactly how this will play out is the source of much speculation in spaces such as this one.  In that spirit, here are my thoughts.

DENVER – One of the Silver State’s noted political observers threw cold water on a surprising poll that showed Democrat Jill Derby running a surprisingly strong challenge to U.S. Rep. Dean Heller (R-Carson City).

A new Reno Gazette-Journal/KTVN poll finds Democratic challenger Jill Derby (D-Carson City) is within striking distance of incumbent U.S. Rep. Dean Heller (R-Carson City) in the 2nd Congressional District.

Derby, a former state Democratic chairwoman, trails Heller 47 percent to 42 percent, according to the poll. However, the 5 percent margin of error and recent registration swings in the 2nd District favoring Democrats suggest the poll could actually be good news for the challenger.