January 24, 2008 - 23:13

Education funding could make gov contest interesting

In his State of the State address this week Gov. John Lynch talked a lot about what he wants, but very little about what he needs.

Lynch said he wants no additional state spending this year. He wants to boost the North Country's economy. He wants health insurance companies to offer "wellness" plans to businesses. He wants an online child safety act. He also wants the state to join a regional greenhouse gas initiative.

But what Lynch needs, more than anything else, is for his constitutional amendment for education funding to pass.

Simply put, unless Lynch and his team fix this issue -- and fix it in a hurry -- the popularity of Lynch and the majorities in the House and Senate are severely threatened. And now the forecast isn't looking good for him.

He did bring up the issue in his address Wednesday.

"After 10 years, the best chance for us to move forward on education funding is to give the people a say," said Lynch. "Whether you are for an amendment or against an amendment, let the people vote."

He could not have liked the reaction his words received.

Democrats, as in those of his own party and the majority, sat in their chairs. The Republicans, as in those who want Lynch to fail in an election year, rose to their feet with agreement and applause.

It was a moment illuminating how big the problem is for Lynch.

Education funding has been one of the major issues --  if not the most important issue -- facing the state for the past decade. In 1997, the New Hampshire Supreme Court ruled the current method of funding education in the state was unconstitutional because of the difference in spending per student in rich communities and poor ones. The court has also ruled that simply targeting aid to make up the difference in poor communities is also unconstitutional.

Lynch ran for office in 2004 saying he would fix the problem. Really, he only had three options. First,  he could argue the state will pay entirely for education funding from the first dollar. But that would require a new revenue stream to pay for it. Second, he could do nothing and dare the court to take over education in the state. Third, he could propose a constitutional amendment and make what is currently unconstitutional, constitutional.

The first option is ruled out due to Lynch's opposition of imposing a state income tax or sales tax. The second isn't an option because he ran saying he would fix the problem. The third option, a constitutional amendment, is what he has proposed and is calling for again.

But passing a constitutional amendment is a lot different that just passing a bill. Any amendment would have to get at least 60 percent support in both the House and Senate and then be approved by two-third of voters.

Last year when Lynch proposed an amendment it went through several revisions and still did not pass. And that wasn't an election year.

Heading into this election year Lynch is in a strong position. He has a Democratic majority in the state house and he has approval ratings over 70 percent.

He has not made any major enemies in office nor has he made any big mistakes. There are two other reasons why he is so powerful: Republicans have yet to find a argument that they can use to criticize (other than the weak "leadership" one) and they haven't found anyone with the guts to take him on since former Sen. Tom Eaton (R-Keene) was deposed as Senate president in 2005.

If education funding goes badly in the next three or four months Republicans will have finally have a good argument and in Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta, who is making moves to run against Lynch for governor, Republicans have a credible pit bull.

Education funding as a policy issue as been around for a long time, but in a short time it could quickly change politics.

James W. Pindell is a Politicker.com Editor and can be reached via email at noreply@politicker.com.

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