June 24, 2008 - 11:00

Dems enjoy early edge in state Senate match-ups

Here's a review of the state Senate playing field as we begin the summer.

The races are divided into five categories: Strong Democratic, Lean Democratic, Toss-up, Lean Republican and Strong Republican.

Let's start with the Democrats:

STRONG DEMOCRATIC (7)

  • District 5 (open seat, currently held by Peter Burling)
  • District 10 (Molly Kelly)
  • District 13 (open seat, currently held by Joe Foster)
  • District 15 (Sylvia Larsen)
  • District 20 (Lou D'Allesandro)
  • District 21 (open seat, currently held by Iris Estabrook)
  • District 24 (Martha Fuller Clark)

Notes: Open seats should pose little problem for Democrats. Tough to see an Eaton comeback unless political weather changes. You'll know it's election season when Sen. D'Allesandro is pumping gas at Bill Sarette's Tire and Battery.

LEANS DEMOCRATIC (6)

  • District 2 (Deborah Reynolds)
  • District 4 (Kathleen Sgambati)
  • District 6 (Jacalyn Cilley)
  • District 7 (Harold Janeway)
  • District 18 (Betsi DeVries)
  • District 23 (Maggie Hassan)

Notes: Marginal demographics plus a potential quality challenger put Hassan's seat in this category for now. Early political winds at backs of first-term incumbents. How competitive will GOP challengers be in fundraising?

TOSS-UP (1)

  • District 12 (open seat, currently held by David Gottesman)

Notes: Democrats happy to be sitting on 13 seats, but wish it were 14.

LEANS REPUBLICAN (5)

  • 1 (John Gallus)
  • 3 (open seat, currently held by Joe Kenney)
  • 8 (Bob Odell)
  • 11 (Peter Bragdon)
  • 16 (Ted Gatsas)

Notes: Gallus, like Hassan, easily could move to "Strong" if challenger can't keep up. Could the Carroll County seat flip if it's another strong Democratic year?

STRONG REPUBLICAN (5)

  • 9 (Sheila Roberge)
  • 14 (Open, currently held by Bob Clegg)
  • 17 (Jack Barnes)
  • 19 (Robert Letourneau)
  • 22 (Mike Downing)

Dante Scala teaches American politics at the University of New Hampshire and blogs at Graniteprof.

Dante Scala can be reached via email at noreply@politicker.com.

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