State Sen. Joe Kenney's decision to run for governor has led to one of the most competitive state Senate races in the state.

State Rep. Bill Denley (R-Wakefield) won a three-way primary on September 9 to square-off against Bud Martin (D-Center Sandwich) in November.

Local politicians agree that the race will come down to how well the candidates perform in the southern part of the district.

"A Republican candidate needs to do well in a place like Wolfeboro and especially Moultonborough," state Rep. Gene Chandler (R-Bartlett) said. "For a Democrat it's going to be towns like Tamworth and maybe Sandwich."

Erik Taylor, a consultant with Elevare Communications, said Denley needs to have at least a 1,000 vote lead out of Moultonborough and Tuftonboro.

"If you look at the past general election results you can come out with a pretty significant lead from the 'boros.' You can come out with a lead of a 1,000, 1,500 if you do strong in those towns," Taylor said. "It gives you a foundation to go up to Conway, I would say it would to be a pretty balanced area in terms of ballot distribution, but my gut tells me that the Democrats are much stronger up there now than four years ago."

State Rep. Tom Buco (D-Conway) said Martin is strong in the two largest voting areas in the district.

"Conway and Wolfeboro are the two biggest population centers and I think Bud Martin is strong there," Buco said.

Taylor added that Martin, a well known lawyer in the area, can use his business contacts to do well in the "boro" area.

"I think he [Martin] needs to do well in Conway and but make some inroads in Moultonborough, Tuftonboro and Wolfeboro. Maybe that's potential given his relationships in the business community."

Joyce Davis, chairwoman of the Wolfeboro Democrats, told PolitickerNH.com that Martin has the edge because Carroll County has been trending Democratic.

"People have been making a lot of traction in Carroll County," she said. "Conway has become increasingly blue and much of Carroll County has been successful recently in electing state representatives."

Davis also said that Martin has been reaching out to local activists.

"Bud has done immensely terrific job at reaching out to lots of community groups, his name was on our radar screen months and months ago before anybody else ever announced," Davis said.

Chandler gave the edge to Denley because his name has appeared on the ballot before.

"It'll be a close race at this point Denley's a little more well known because he's a state rep and people have seen his name on the ballot," Chandler said.

Davis concluded, "You get the sense that the tide is turning here."

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