New Hampshire News by Dante Scala

Thu, 01/08/2009 - 13:54
COLUMNIST

By 1980, realignment well underway in N.H.

To wrap up what we've seen so far: although New Hampshire remained a solidly Republican state in presidential elections through the 1980s, significant changes were underway at the county level.  During the 1960s, five counties voted at least 5 points more Republican than the entire state.  By the 1980s, that number had dropped to just two, Belknap and Carroll - and both were losing their GOP tilt.

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Fri, 01/02/2009 - 11:59
COLUMNIST

1960-80: The hidden realignment - Part IV

Another county that moved toward the Democrats in the 1960s and 1970s was Carroll County. By the end of the ‘70s, Carroll was still strongly Republican, but the county had lost half of its GOP tilt.

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Tue, 12/30/2008 - 13:28
COLUMNIST

1960-1980: The hidden realignment - Part III

Outside the core counties of Hillsborough and Rockingham, other counties moved in a decidedly Democratic direction by the beginning of the 1980s.

Take, for instance, Merrimack County.  Merrimack was strongly Republican in presidential elections during the 1960s and early ‘70s, voting 4-5 points more Republican than the entire state.  But the county abruptly moved to bellwether status in 1980 and 1984, when conservative Ronald Reagan was the GOP nominee.

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Tue, 12/23/2008 - 16:41
COLUMNIST

1960-1980: The hidden realignment – Part II

One key change in the 1960s and 1970s is the convergence of Hillsborough and Rockingham counties toward bellwether status.

Back in the 1960s, Hillsborough County had a pronounced Democratic tilt, Rockingham a Republican one. As the graph below shows, Rockingham voted several points more Republican than the state, Hillsborough several points more Democratic than statewide. But both counties tilted toward the middle by the early 1980s.

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Tue, 12/23/2008 - 16:35
COLUMNIST

1960-80: The hidden realignment?

Many observers point to the last half-dozen years as the key turning point for New Hampshire politics. Undoubtedly very significant events have occurred. But we may fairly ask whether we're at the beginning of a realignment in the Granite State, or closer to the conclusion, when we take a look back at all that's occurred in the last several decades.

Consider, for example, how much the state grew during the 1960s and 1970s. Here are the highlights:

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Tue, 12/09/2008 - 17:02
COLUMNIST

NH in the 1960s: Hillsborough vs. Rockingham

Nowadays, both Hillsborough and Rockingham counties tilt Republican in presidential elections. Four decades ago, though, they were polar opposites: Rockingham, then as now, voted several points more Republican than the rest of the state. Hillsborough County, however, voted significantly less Republican than statewide, as the below graph shows.

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Sun, 12/07/2008 - 22:33
COLUMNIST

The pendulum swings: New Hampshire in the 1960s

Back in the 1960s, Republicans had strong footprints in five New Hampshire counties. In the core, for instance, Rockingham County’s rolling average from 1960 to 1968 was +6 Republican; in other words, on average it voted 6 points more Republican than statewide in presidential elections during the 1960s.

Here are the other four solid GOP counties:

•   Belknap (+8)
•   Carroll (+22)
•   Grafton (+8)
•   Merrimack (+5)

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Wed, 12/03/2008 - 21:24
COLUMNIST

How the pendulum swung in New Hampshire, 1960-2008

The “down time” after an election is a good time to take the long view of things. “How the pendulum swung,” starting today, is an extended look at how the Granite State has changed politically over the last half-century.

Our “units of analysis,” to use the jargon of the political scientists, are the 10 counties of New Hampshire. We will take a look at how these counties have voted during the past thirteen presidential elections, from 1960 to 2008.

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Thu, 11/20/2008 - 16:19
COLUMNIST

Obama and the other New Hampshire

Some more back-of-the-envelope analysis of the 2008 results:

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Tue, 11/18/2008 - 15:05
COLUMNIST

Who’s the bluest of them all?

Move over, Cheshire County. Your neighbor to the north, Grafton County, has staked a claim to be the most Democratic county in the state.

Barack Obama won exactly 64 percent of the two-party vote in Grafton, home of Hanover and Dartmouth College. He fell just shy of that in Cheshire, carrying 63.95 percent.

Four decades ago, Grafton County was rock-solid Republican.  It voted some 20 percent more GOP than the rest of the Granite State throughout the 1960s.

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