New Hampshire: Dante Scala

Thu, 01/08/2009 - 13:54
COLUMNIST

By 1980, realignment well underway in N.H.

To wrap up what we've seen so far: although New Hampshire remained a solidly Republican state in presidential elections through the 1980s, significant changes were underway at the county level.  During the 1960s, five counties voted at least 5 points more Republican than the entire state.  By the 1980s, that number had dropped to just two, Belknap and Carroll - and both were losing their GOP tilt.

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Fri, 01/02/2009 - 11:59
COLUMNIST

1960-80: The hidden realignment - Part IV

Another county that moved toward the Democrats in the 1960s and 1970s was Carroll County. By the end of the ‘70s, Carroll was still strongly Republican, but the county had lost half of its GOP tilt.

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Tue, 12/30/2008 - 13:28
COLUMNIST

1960-1980: The hidden realignment - Part III

Outside the core counties of Hillsborough and Rockingham, other counties moved in a decidedly Democratic direction by the beginning of the 1980s.

Take, for instance, Merrimack County.  Merrimack was strongly Republican in presidential elections during the 1960s and early ‘70s, voting 4-5 points more Republican than the entire state.  But the county abruptly moved to bellwether status in 1980 and 1984, when conservative Ronald Reagan was the GOP nominee.

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Tue, 12/23/2008 - 16:41
COLUMNIST

1960-1980: The hidden realignment – Part II

One key change in the 1960s and 1970s is the convergence of Hillsborough and Rockingham counties toward bellwether status.

Back in the 1960s, Hillsborough County had a pronounced Democratic tilt, Rockingham a Republican one. As the graph below shows, Rockingham voted several points more Republican than the state, Hillsborough several points more Democratic than statewide. But both counties tilted toward the middle by the early 1980s.

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Tue, 12/23/2008 - 16:35
COLUMNIST

1960-80: The hidden realignment?

Many observers point to the last half-dozen years as the key turning point for New Hampshire politics. Undoubtedly very significant events have occurred. But we may fairly ask whether we're at the beginning of a realignment in the Granite State, or closer to the conclusion, when we take a look back at all that's occurred in the last several decades.

Consider, for example, how much the state grew during the 1960s and 1970s. Here are the highlights:

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Wed, 12/17/2008 - 16:35

Analysts give early edge to Hodes over Shea-Porter in Senate challenge

Political analysts say that it is a "tough call" to determine which Granite State congressman would be a better candidate to challenge U.S. Sen. Judd Gregg (R-Rye) in a 2010 race.

Reports over the past week have mentioned that U.S. Rep.

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Mon, 11/03/2008 - 19:07

Analysts offer last-minute predictions

Several New Hampshire political analysts have offered their predictions for Election Day.

All the analysts cited say the Democrats are poised to win the congressional races in New Hampshire and will keep control of the State House.

 

Dean Spiliotes: NHPoliticalCapital.com

President: Obama wins New Hampshire

Senate: Shaheen wins

NH-1: Shea-Porter wins

NH-2: Hodes wins

 

Andy Smith: Director of UNH Survey Center

Sun, 11/02/2008 - 13:57

Sununu appearance with McCain has more pros than cons, analysts say

With less than two days to go before Election Day, U.S. Sen. John Sununu (R-Waterville Valley) will be attending John McCain's town hall forum in Peterborough.

Political analysts agree that Sununu's appearance has more upsides than downsides, despite polls that show Sununu running better in his re-election race than McCain is in the presidential race in New Hampshire.

According to the UNH/WMUR tracking poll Sununu trails his opponent, former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D-Madbury), by five percentage points, while McCain is losing to Barack Obama by 11 points.

Sun, 10/05/2008 - 10:03

Analysts say economy gives edge to Dems

Economic uncertainty among voters has given an edge to the Democratic ticket, according to New Hampshire political analysts.

"Certainly the last two weeks have been terrible for the Republican Party from John McCain down," said Dante Scala, UNH professor and PolitickerNH.com columnist, told The Associated Press.

Fri, 09/26/2008 - 14:44

Pollwatchers, rejoice!

For the truly obsessive-compulsive poll watchers among us (and yes, we're certainly talking to you), Pollster.com has devised a fully interactive Flash chart of all New Hampshire surveys of the presidential race

Among other nifty features, the website now allows you to filter out individual pollsters, and then redraws the graphs without those particular data points. 

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