It hasn’t been a week since the race for the 15th Congressional District ended, but a competitive rematch could be in the making.
U.S. Representative-elect Mary Jo Kilroy (D-Columbus) defeated Steve Stivers (R-Columbus) by 2,311 votes, as tabulated last Sunday. This narrow victory for Kilroy comes after a narrow loss of about 1,000 votes to U.S. Rep. Deborah Pryce (R-Columbus) in 2006. These twin close elections may indicate a tight 2010 race, especially if Stivers runs again.

Stivers’ narrow loss to Kilroy hasn’t taken the shine off him for Republicans or Democrats.

Franklin County Republican Party Chairman Doug Preisse said he talked to Stivers the day after his defeat and said he has an “unlimited” future.

“It’s a little early to be talking about specifics, but generally speaking I can say this is a guy with a great future, whether it’s in public service or back in business. His military career, serving his country, continues,” Preisse said. “He had the opportunity to introduce himself to a wider audience, indeed a national audience too.

Many Republicans considered Stivers their best recruit for an open-seat U.S. House race in the country.

Democratic strategist Dale Butland said Stivers fits the district.

“I think he’s an attractive candidate,” Butland said. “He is a moderate. He is not as extremist as many of the members of his party and in that sense I think he fits the district, which is a moderate district.”

Preisse and Butland both said 2010 will be a tough year for Kilroy if for no other reason than the first re-election for a U.S. representative is always tough. Butland said Kilroy can help her re-election odds by immediately beginning to raise money and keeping in touch with the district by returning every weekend from Washington, D.C.

“Make sure the voters here understand that you are in touch with where they are, that you remember where you came from, that you haven’t’ gone ‘Washington’ on them,” Butland said.

Butland said he believes the political center has shifted left and that benefits Kilroy.

Stivers’ campaign manager Michael Hartley performed a partial post-mortem on his candidate’s loss.

Overall, a “Democratic tsunami” swept across Ohio this year, as evidenced by Democratic wins in solidly Republican districts like that of seven-term U.S. Rep. Steve Chabot (R-Cincinnati) and retiring 18-term U.S. Rep. Ralph Regula (R-Navarre). In addition, Hartley said the financial crisis and independent and libertarian candidates who won 11.5 percent of the vote hurt Stivers.

Moreover, Stivers had $3 million in independent expenditures dropped on him, $550,000 in the last week on television alone, Hartley said.

“If anyone watched broadcast TV it was an absolute blood bath the last week. Still, [both candidates] basically fought to a tie.”

However, Hartley said he believed that President-elect Barack Obama’s absence from the 2010 ballot will lead to lower turnout for Democrats.

“There are a lot of people who voted in this 2008 election that aren’t going to vote in 2010.”