While Democrats concede that Darlene Hooley’s retirement makes the District 5 race increasingly competitive, they say they have reason to remain confident in their chances of holding the seat.

One of the first points Democrats make is that the state is trending Democratic. They point to Ted Kulongoski’s 51%-43% victory over Republican Ron Saxton in 2006 and say that recent electoral history favors them. They also point out that, no matter how competitive Republicans proclaim the district to be, Hooley was able to win 5 consecutive races there.

Democrats also believe that the fundamentals of the district favor them. Oregon State students populate the area and there is a growing Hispanic population.

Democrats also believe that Republican candidate Mike Erickson might not be the strongest opponent.

They point out that in the fourth quarter Erickson was only able to raise about $70K – a sum, Democrats say, which indicates a lack of grassroots support. Democrats also wonder why Erickson, who ran for the seat in 2006, doesn’t have a larger fundraising pool from which to draw.

The final point Democrats make: that if the 2008 caucuses and primaries have illustrated anything, it is that Democratic voters are energized. And that could bode well for Democrats in District 5 come November.