With the general election now less than three months away, PolitickerPa.com looks back to the 2004 race between President Bush and U.S. Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) for lessons this fall's campaigns need to learn.

1. The Philadelphia suburbs are where the state is won or lost.

Republicans reliably will likely win the numerous but less-populous rural areas while Democrats will probably capture the few, but heavily populated urban areas. That leaves the Philadelphia suburbs, four traditionally Republican counties that are in a state of political flux. Democrats have been making significant inroads across the suburbs, erasing Republican majorities that stood for decades. But conservative bastions remain, and how voters in Chester and Delaware counties, in particular, cast their ballots could go a long way in deciding the victor.

"It's probably the most important area of the state in terms of determining election outcomes," said Chris Borick, a pollster and political science professor at Muhlenberg College in Allentown.

It was the Philadelphia suburbs that gave Gov. Ed Rendell his re-election victory in 2006. Despite losing a vast majority of the state's counties, Rendell emerged victorious by racking up large margins in Philadelphia and the suburbs. Obama is looking for a similar win.

2. Forget the Democratic trends: This is about candidates

Pennsylvania's Democratic gains were already well under way in 2004 when U.S. Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) barely beat President Bush here. While this could be a great year for Democrats down the ballot, voters are far less likely to be influenced by party when casting their vote for president.

"Even though Bush was a very flawed candidate, enough people in Pennsylvania felt comfortable with him and could relate to him to make it a tough race," Borick said of 2004. "All demographics aside and all registration numbers aside, in presidential races it still comes down to the personalities of the candidates themselves."

3. It may not be Ohio or Florida, but it's still a swing state.

While Pennsylvania has been a hotly contested swing state since the New Deal, it ranks as the 15th most competitive state in this year's presidential race on The Pindell Report, with newly competitive Western states like Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico pushing it down the list.

Democrats now outnumber Republicans by a solid one million voters in Pennsylvania, but the state remains one that Republicans think they can win in a presidential race. For evidence, look no further than the endless days and millions of dollars that McCain has spent here.

"Pennsylvania remains one of the great swing states in contemporary American politics," Borick said. "Its size and the closeness of races make it an attractive place for presidential candidates to work.

"How do you explain George Bush losing the state so narrowly if it's not a swing state?" he added.

Is McCain putting too many of his eggs in the Keystone State's basket?

"I don't think so at all," Borick said, explaining that the demographic shifts stem from dissatisfaction with that national brand of Republican politics, "not necessarily with a candidate like McCain."

Elliot Curson, a longtime GOP advertising consultant in Philadelphia, sees even simpler evidence why Pennsylvania is still a state "you have to fight for."

"Obama's been hitting home runs, he hasn't made serious errors, and the race is still competitive," Curson said.