It's been a tough couple years for the Montgomery County Republican Committee. Registration gains that were already moving in the Democrats' favor accelerated greatly with the excitement over the presidential race. Factions of the party are split, with the two Republican County Commissioners locked in a political feud that has given Democrats more control of local policy, and seats long-held by the GOP seem increasingly in danger.

County Republicans hope they can emerge from this political minefield on Election Day and bolster their sagging presence in the Philadelphia suburbs. There are Democratic seats in state legislature they hope to capture, and Republican seats where they hope to stave off fierce challenges. By some counts, at least five Harrisburg offices are in play. A best-case scenario could do wonders for the party organization. A worst-case outcome, though, could cement its minority status in the county for the coming years.

"This will be a pivotal moment," said Chris Borick, a pollster and political scientist at Muhlenberg College. "It's been a tough run for Republicans in Montgomery County over the last few years. If they have another bad night and see a lot of these down-ballot races break from them, it will further confirm that the county is slipping away from them."

Democratic and Republican party officials are both projecting auras of confidence in the final hours before Election Day.

"They're holding on for dear life," Democratic chairman Marcel Groen said of the county GOP recently. "We're doing well by winning one or two seats at a time."

GOP chairman Bob Kerns, for his part, wouldn't even talk about a potential worst-case scenario.

"Montgomery County has always had a very strong delegation, and obviously we don't want to concede any one of the seats that we have," he told PolitickerPA.com in an interview.

The stakes could be particularly high for Kerns, who took the reins of party leadership earlier this year promising to stop registrants from fleeing and to take back some legislative seats. But he hasn't been able to bring back many Republicans who left (see sidebar here), and if the party loses some long-held seats, especially without picking up any new ones, some critics might see it as an early indictment of his leadership.

"There's no way to judge the leadership other than results," said one party insider, who would speak only on condition of anonymity. "You have the say that the outlook is bleak, unless they can fulfill these pledges that they made."

The Democratic-leaning trends in Montgomery County have mirrored those throughout southeast Pennsylvania, though Democrats have made gains here quicker than in other suburban counties. The upper-middle-class and upper-class population centers among the Main Line are increasingly Democratic, and the remaining Republicans tend to be moderates who have been disaffected by the national party.

"There's still a dislike of George Bush in some of our circles," Kerns said in an understatement.

Several local races are in play this year, insiders on both sides of the aisle say, giving county Republicans a hope of hanging onto their influence.

Topping most people's lists is the race for the 70th Legislative District seat, currently held by freshman Rep. Jay Moyer (R-Lower Salford). Moyer beat Democrat Netta Young Hughes by only 103 votes in 2006, and the party's nominee this year, former municipal administrator Matt Bradford, is widely considered to be a stronger candidate. Party registration in the district has flipped to the Democrats' favor since 2006. While Moyer says his moderate voting record and appeal to independents can overcome the registration disadvantage, if the Democrats pick up any seat in Montgomery County, this is likely to be the one.

The contest has been ranked as one of PolitickerPA.com's Top 5 most competitive state House races.

Also up for grabs for the Democrats is Rep. Kate Harper's (R-Lower Gwynedd) seat in the 61st Legislative District. Harper is being challenged by Democrat Frank Custer. This is a harder get for the Democrats. While Bradford is likely to do well in the urban center of Norristown in the 70th, the 61st is more of a traditional suburban district.

Republicans are pegging their highest hopes for capturing a Democratic seat on Todd Stephens, an assistant district attorney who is trying to unseat Rep. Rick Taylor (D-Ambler) in the 151st Legislative District. Taylor has run an aggressive campaign and has been well-funded by local and state Republicans.

But the GOP also has high hopes for the 17th Senatorial District seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Connie Williams (D-Montgomery). Republican Lower Merion Commissioner Lance Rogers, seen as a rising star in the party, is taking on state Rep. Daylin Leach (D-Upper Merion) in that race. A Democratic registration edge and Leach's name-recognition from already representing part of the district has made him the favorite. Both candidates have been heavily bankrolled, and what has looked like an increasingly close race could prove to be the surprise of the election cycle.

At the bottom of most insiders' lists is the 149th Legislative District being vacated by Leach. Republican Lynne Lechter has run a strong, grass-roots campaign against Democrat Tim Briggs. But with a significant Democratic registration gain, this seems like the seat least likely to flip to the other side of the aisle.

If Republicans can keep the seats held by Moyer and Harper, and pick up even one of the Democratic seats they are challenging, it would likely be seen as a smashing success considering the toxic electoral climate for the GOP. It wouldn't return the party to prominence, but it would at least slow perceptions of its downfall.

"Whenever you add seats, it enhances the state delegation to Harrisburg, which always helps the county party," Kerns said.

Winning a second seat from the Democrats would truly put the brakes on the party's decline, at least for now.

"I think if they were able to win those and holds the seats that they have, they'd walk away happy," Borick said. "That would be a good night."

But if the Republican-held seats fall, and no GOP pick-ups fill the gap, it could only be seen as a disaster.

"If the Democrats are able to do well in those toss-up races and steal a couple seats in the county, it just further establishes the end of Republican dominance," Borick said. "It almost puts the icing on the cake for Democrats in their recent success there."

Said the Republican Party insider: "The county delegation would be more Democratic than ever. I think it would be a failure."

On Election Night, PolitickerPA.com will be shuffling between where candidates from both parties are gathering in Plymouth Meeting. Log on Tuesday night for breaking coverage and analysis of returns and reactions.