NEW STANTON -- Republican Congressional candidate Bill Russell knows predicting victory will likely jinx his chances.

But because he said he already predicted victory to a supporter a few days ago, he figured it wouldn't hurt if he did so again to PolitickerPA.com.

"We're going to win by 4 points," Russell said, shortly after his mid-day rally next to a Days Inn. "If that's a jinxing move, it's already happened."

Predicting victory against 34-year incumbent U.S. Rep. John Murtha (D-Johnstown) would have been met with laughs and eye-rolls two months ago, even from dedicated Republicans. Russell's own campaign, although dedicated, knew toppling the western Pennsylvania institution would take a political miracle.

But perception of this race has changed dramatically the past month. A poll commissioned in late October by The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review showed the congressman leading by fewer than 5 points. A week earlier Murtha made his now in-famous remarks to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette's editorial board, calling his western Pennsylvania district a "racist area." He later called them "rednecks" during a botched apology. 

Murtha's comments were the first time it seemed he might not coast to his 15th term. The DCCC and NRCC both soon reacted -- each has bought nearly a half-million dollars worth of ads in the 12th Congressional District.

But for Peg Luksik, Russell's campaign manager, the realization came a month earlier. The campaign had commissioned an internal poll to see which issues Russell should focus on.

It showed Murtha's support below 50 percent, a worrying sign for a long-term incumbent whose opponent was still barely known.

Luksik said that moment, not when Murtha called some of his constituents racists, was when she realized Russell had a legitimate chance to unseat the congressman.

Murtha's comments and the attention they brought to the race, Luksik said, in fact alerted Murtha he needed to campaign.

"I'm sorry about the comments now," she said.

Murtha's campaign has focused on Russell's recent move to the district -- he previously lived all over the world while on duty with the U.S. Army, most recently in Virginia. The congressman has accused Russell of being a carpetbagger, someone who moved here from Virginia at the sign of a political opportunity.

The incumbent's campaign likes to contrast that with the congressman's long history in the area. Murtha has a clear record of creating jobs and defending the district's faimies, said his spokesman, Matthew Mazonkey.

"William Russell's record is also clear -- he doesn't live here, doesn't understand our area, and doesn't care about representing us in Congress,"Mazonkey told PolitickerPA.com. "The good people of Western Pennsylvania understand this, and they're going to send Jack Murtha to a 19th term of representing them."

Most Pennsylvania political pundits will say they believe Murtha is on the precipice of losing.

They just don't think he will lose.

"I still feel he'll win," said Joseph DiSarro, chair of the Washington & Jefferson College political science department, sentiment that mirrors the thoughts of all pundits contacted by PolitickerPA.com this week.

The pork that Murtha brings to the district will carry him to victory, he said.

"He'll pull it out," DiSarro said.

The Russell campaign's Luksik calls the race a "dead heat."

Regardless of Tuesday's outcome though, Luksik said the campaign already has made a difference.

"Whether we win or lose Tuesday, we've already changed Jack's behavior."