Could what is universally expected to be a horrible year for the GOP unexpectedly rear its head in the 18th Congressional District?

That's the message pushed by the campaign for Democrat Steve O'Donnell, who is taking on U.S. Rep. Tim Murphy (R-Upper St. Clair) in the western Pennsylvania district. His campaign points to a negative TV ad run by the Republican last week as evidence Murphy thinks he's in trouble.

Campaigns don't run negative ads against opponents without a chance, said Harry Gural, O'Donnell's communications director.
 
"The way I look at it is he has fears in his eyes," Gural told PolitickerPA.com. "He sees Steve has a shot at beating him."

The 18th district has a registration edge that favors Democrats, Gural said, and an electorate waiting to back a legitimate Democratic contender.

But beyond the negative ad and registration figures, there little evidence to suggest a competitive race. No poll available to the public has been released and Murphy's fundraising has dwarfed O'Donnell's. The incumbent had raised more than $1.5 million through Oct. 23, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission.

O'Donnell had raised just $157,417 in the same time period.

Murphy's campaign dismissed the notion the race is close.

"I appreciate their insights on our thinking, but it doesn't prove any such thing," said campaign spokesman Bob Holste, referring to the O'Donnell campaign's belief the negative ad proves they're concerned.

He touted the congressman's independent voting record as proof of his popularity in the district and pointed to O'Donnell's meager fundraising as evidence of his lack of support.

"He hasn't raised enough money to run a good state House race," Holste said.

The campaign consultant declined to handicap the race, saying only, "We're comfortable with where the campaign is going right now."

Gural conceded the money advantage is imposing but said he thinks the electorate has better responded to O'Donnell's message.

"Our message is better -- but can he get that out?" he asked. "The only real thing (Murphy) has in this race is money."

An O'Donnell victory would be huge for Democrats in the state, who face the prospect of losing two incumbents on Election Day -- John Murtha and Paul Kanjorski. Although it's still a long shot, one political pundit pointed out that no Republican is out of the woods in this climate.

Franklin & Marshall College pollster Terry Madonna said no incumbent member of the GOP should go to bed Monday night worry free.

"No Republican incumbent should feel safe," he told PolitickerPA.com.