America's most dynamic and deeply reported political forecast.

Last Updated: November 2, 2008


Safe
Democratic
#13
U.S. Senate: New Jersey
Incumbent: Frank Lautenberg (D)
Last Week's Rank: #13

2008 Candidates

Frank Lautenberg (D)

U.S. Senator

Dick Zimmer (R)

Former Congressman

Jason Scheurer (I)

Private Money Manager

Former State Assembly Candidate

About the Race

U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg is 84 years old, he’s never won more than 55 percent in a statewide election, and his poll numbers have never been very impressive. Still, he’s on the verge of becoming the first five-term Senator in New Jersey history. Lautenberg won a massive victory over U.S. Rep. Rob Andrews in the Democratic primary, and Republicans struggled to find a candidate before turning to former U.S. Rep. Dick Zimmer, who gave up his House seat 12 years ago to run for the Senate. New Jersey is one of America’s bluest states (the GOP hasn’t won a U.S. Senate race since 1972) and it will take a huge blunder by the incumbent to cost Democrats this seat.

Race Updates

November 12, 2008 - 1:46 pm — Safe Democratic — #13
Lautenberg won re-election 56 percent to 42 percent.

October 29, 2008 - 12:41 pm — Safe Democratic — #15
According to the Star-Ledger, Lautenberg is walloping Zimmer in regard to how much money has been given to him from special interest groups. Lautenberg received about $1.28M, while Zimmer received just above $150K.

October 27, 2008 - 1:01 pm — Safe Democratic — #16
Although The New York Times endorsed Lautenberg, it came with a side of zingers and barbs. PolitickerNJ.com is reporting the Times editorial board smeared Lautenberg for only agreeing to a single debate, and said that voters in the state “deserved a better race.”

October 7, 2008 - 11:02 am — Likely Democratic — #11
PolitickerNJ.com is reporting that Lautenberg's acceptance of a debate with Zimmer on Nov. 1 is a stalling tactic in order to tilt the race in his favor.

"I am astounded that Senator Lautenberg refuses to come out of hiding until November.  His campaign has been giving lip service about his commitment to holding face-to-face debates with Dick Zimmer since the primary, but with less than five weeks until Election Day, Senator Lautenberg has failed to tell voters why he deserves another six years in Washington, said Randy Mastro, special counsel to the Zimmer campaign.

October 7, 2008 - 10:58 am — Likely Democratic — #11
PolitickerME.com is reporting a Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee poll shows that Collins lead has narrowed down to single digits over Allen, as the incumbent is leading by a margin of 49 to 41 percent.

September 26, 2008 - 11:34 am — Likely Democratic — #10
PolitickerNJ.com is reporting that a Strategic Vision poll indicates that Lautenberg leads Zimmer by a seven point margin of 45 to 38 percent.

September 18, 2008 - 5:06 pm — Likely Democratic — #10
A Quinnipiac poll out on Wednesday shows Lautenberg with a 9 point lead over Zimmer. 

September 16, 2008 - 1:16 pm — Likely Democratic — #10
PolitickerNJ.com is reporting that debates have yet to be scheduled between Lautenberg and Zimmer. The Zimmer campaign is accusing Lautenberg of avoiding the issue

"It's hard to understand why Frank Lautenberg doesn't want to debate the issues of importance to New Jersey voters with Dick Zimmer," said Randy Mastro, special counsel to the Zimmer campaign.

September 11, 2008 - 2:00 pm — Likely Democratic — #10
A new Fairleigh Dickinson-Public Mind poll gives Lautenberg an 11 point lead over Zimmer. A huge factor in this race is name recognition. The poll finds that over 40 percent of those asked don't know who Zimmer, a former congressman, is while 90 percent know Lautenberg.

September 1, 2008 - 1:17 pm — Likely Democratic — #10
PolitickerNJ.com is reporting that Zimmer is up-in-arms over comments made by former Denver mayor Wellington Webb, who praised Lautenberg for helping him obtain funding to build the Denver International Airport.

"Senator Lautenberg's pork-barrel spending may be helping Colordoans but it's hurting New Jerseyans," Zimmer said.

August 15, 2008 - 3:43 pm — Likely Democratic — #9

According to PolitickerNJ.com the New Jersey state police union has endorsed Lautenberg for re-election over Zimmer today.

CQ Politics has Lautenberg leading Zimmer 48 percent to 41 percent with 11 percent undecided in a survey of likely voters by Quinnipiac University conducted Aug. 4-10.

August 14, 2008 - 12:25 am — Likely Democratic — #9
Zimmer's campaign is attacking the Lautenberg camp, saying it is trying to take advantage of a recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling that struck down the so-called "Millionaire's Amendment," PolitickerNJ.com reports.

August 12, 2008 - 7:15 am — Likely Democratic — #9
A Quinnipiac University poll has Lautenberg with a 7-point lead over Zimmer, 48%-41%. 

August 8, 2008 - 12:47 am — Likely Democratic — #9
As part of his "Waste of the Week" feature, Zimmer targeted Lautenberg over pork barrel spending in the Farm Bill. As PolitickerNJ.com reports, Lautenberg's campaign hit back calling the attack baseless, especially coming from Zimmer, who has been a lobbyist.

August 7, 2008 - 1:52 pm — Likely Democratic — #9
A new Rasmussen poll shows that Lautenberg has not only improved his rating over Zimmer by 2 percent, but has broken the 50-percent threshold, PolitickerNJ.com reports. Zimmer's figures dropped three percentage points from last month, putting Lautenberg over Zimmer at a comfortable 51 percent to 33 percent margin.

August 1, 2008 - 1:31 pm
According to second quarter fundraising numbers, Lautenberg, who spent nearly $5 million to win the Democratic primary, has $1.3 million cash on hand. Zimmer has $411,000.

August 1, 2008 - 8:20 am

The latest Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey polls shows Lautenberg leading Zimmer by 11 points, 39 percent to 28 percent.

July 22, 2008 - 4:12 pm

U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg canceled a fundraiser on Sunday at a Bruce Springsteen concert after a local newspaper revealed that his campaign was buying premium seats from the state agency that runs Giants Stadium for $108 and reselling them to campaign contributors for $1,500.

July 17, 2008 - 12:52 pm
Campaign finance records released this week show U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg spent $5 million to fend off U.S. Rep. Rob Andrews in the June primary, but nevertheless he still has a million dollar cash on hand advantage over Republican Dick Zimmer.

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