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About the Pindell Report


America's most dynamic and deeply reported political forecast.

Last Updated: November 3, 2008


Leans
Republican
#16
NJ-7
Michael Ferguson (R)
is not running for re-election
Last Week's Rank: #16

2008 Candidates

Leonard Lance (R)

State Senator

Linda Stender (D)

State Assemblywoman

About the Race

CANDIDATES: Republican U.S. Rep. Michael Ferguson is retiring after four terms. The Republican nominee is state Sen. Leonard Lance; the Democratic candidates are state Assemblywoman Linda Stender; corporate marketing executive Tom Abrams, activist Dean Greco and Bridgewater City Councilman Michael Hsing are running as Independents. Ferguson won the district with 49 percent in 2006. Bush won the district with 53 percent in 2004.

RACE PROFILE: The race for this North Jersey seat that includes parts of Hunterdon, Somerset and Union counties was close in 2006 and it should be close again this cycle. After barely losing to Ferguson, Stender is back. This time her opponent is Lance. Republicans like the state senator, but fundraising is shaping up to be a big issue for the GOP. Through June, Stender had a more than $1 million advantage in cash-on-hand. Still, victory is not assured for the Democrat -- this district went solidly for Bush in 2004

 

ANALYSIS: Heading into the final weekend, Lance looks poised to eke out a surprising victory. Looking for a sign? This weekend, Democrats are dispatching their highest profile surrogate, former President Bill Clinton, to campaign for Stender. That’s not something a campaign does when its ahead going into the final hours of a race. Also, this week, PolitickerNJ.com reported that Stender’s internal poll numbers showed her a few points down. How did we get to this point? After a year of national Democrats and aligned organizations dumping millions of dollars behind Stender, the Democrat missed when she spent part of the last stretch of the campaign talking about abortion. If there is anything we learned from this cycle, it’s that social issues didn’t matter much. Other Democrats across the country gained traction by focusing on the economy. Should Stender indeed fall short, it would be a disappointing end to a race that Democrats had invested heavily in.

 

Race Updates

November 7, 2008 - 12:16 am — Leans Republican — #16

With 100 percent of the precincts reporting, Lance has defeated Stender 51 percent to 42 percent.

November 1, 2008 - 12:34 pm — Leans Republican — #15
A poll conducted for Lance shows the Republican leading Stender 40 percent to 31 percent. The survey of 300 likely voters, conducted Oct. 20-21, has an error margin of 5.7 percent.

October 31, 2008 - 12:23 am — Leans Republican — #15

Bill Clinton is set to campaign for Stender on Nov. 1, PolitickerNJ.com reports.

October 30, 2008 - 12:07 am — Leans Democratic — #27

The New York Times has endorsed Lance.

October 22, 2008 - 1:15 pm — Leans Democratic — #13

The National Republican Congressional Committee is up with a new television advertisement hitting Stender on the economy.

The Courier News has endorsed Lance.

The Newark Star-Ledger has endorsed Lance.

October 19, 2008 - 10:11 pm — Leans Democratic — #8

The New Jersey races for the 3rd and 7th congressional districts may be statistically tied now, but Republicans would be in far better shape if they were ahead outside the margin of error. It’s hard to see how they can stave off the huge onslaught of advertising on the part of their Democratic rivals. Mark both races as Leans Democrat.

October 19, 2008 - 12:58 pm — Toss up — #8

Lance and Stender clashed over taxes in an Oct. 14 debate.

October 16, 2008 - 4:56 pm — Toss up — #8

A poll conducted for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee shows Stender leading Lance 40 percent to 31 percent. The survey of 406 likely voters, conducted Oct. 8-9, has a margin of error of 4.9 percent.

Lance has a new television advertisement accusing Stender of running an untruthful campaign.

Stender has reported raising $681,000 in third quarter funds.

October 13, 2008 - 12:46 pm — Leans Democratic — #21

Republicans are accusing John Adler and Linda Stender of distributing thousands of dollars in grants from a budget slush fund, PolitickerNJ.com reports. Republicans say the fund was hidden from the budget, and disbursals were completed in a non-transparent fashion.

October 7, 2008 - 12:06 am — Leans Democratic — #21

A Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll finds Lance leading Stender 41 percent to 37 percent. The survey of 410 likely voters, conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 2, has a margin of error of 4.8 percent.

October 6, 2008 - 12:58 pm — Leans Democratic — #23

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has a new television advertisement hitting Lance on abortion.

September 25, 2008 - 12:05 am — Leans Democratic — #25

President Bush fundraised for Adler on Sept. 22, PolitickerNJ.com reports.

September 18, 2008 - 9:06 pm — Leans Democratic — #25

As PolitickerNJ.com reports, Lance and Stender held a Sept. 16 debate in which the two discussed issues ranging from Middle East policy to energy independence.

September 15, 2008 - 6:28 pm — Leans Democratic — #29

As PolitickerNJ.com reports, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is up with its first television advertisement targeting Lance. The $116,000 media buy will be running on cable stations.

September 15, 2008 - 11:32 am — Leans Democratic — #29
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spent $168,213 in the district between Sept. 3 and Sept. 10. The committee has spent $261,318 in the district in total.

September 11, 2008 - 4:54 pm — Leans Democratic — #29

As PolitickerNJ.com reports, a poll conducted for Stender’s campaign shows Stender leading Lance 36 percent to 33 percent, with Hsing receiving 9 percent. The survey of 500 likely voters, conducted Aug. 20-Aug. 25, has a margin of error of 4.4 percent.

Lance released a new television advertisement on Sept. 10 hitting Stender on spending.

September 8, 2008 - 11:24 am — Leans Democratic — #29

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spent $40,665 on independent expenditures in the district between Aug. 20 and Aug. 26. The committee has spent $93,105 in the district in total.

August 22, 2008 - 12:21 am — Leans Democratic — #29

The DCCC is reporting that it has spent $26,220 in the district this week, bringing the committee's total independent expenditures in the contest to $52,440.

August 18, 2008 - 10:08 am — Leans Democratic — #29
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is spending $13,000 in mailings on behalf of Stender's campaign, bringing the DCCC's total expenditures spent in the 7th Congressional District to nearly $40,000, PolitickerNJ.com reports.

August 14, 2008 - 12:18 am — Leans Democratic — #29
As PolitickerNJ.com reports, Lance will not attend the Republican National Convention and will stay in the 7th Congressional District to raise money. The Republican nominee is at a severe financial disadvantage with Stender, whose war chest at the end of the most recent reporting period stood at $1.2 million. Lance says he's certain he has more than $100,000 and has six fundraisers planned in the coming months. The National Republican Congressional Committee has not committed to an ad buy in the district.

August 8, 2008 - 4:14 pm — Leans Democratic — #29

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee reports that is has spent $13,000 on mail pieces in the district.

July 31, 2008 - 6:58 pm
Stender returned about $6,000 in campaign contributions from former New Jersey Assemblyman Neil Cohen, who is under investigation for possessing child pornography on his legislative office computer. Lance questioned why Stender was so quick to return the Cohen contributions but not those from U.S. Rep. Charlie Rangel (D-N.Y.) who has faced scrutiny from Republicans and others for leasing four rent-stabilized apartments in Harlem.

July 16, 2008 - 12:59 am

Fundraising reports show Lance taking in around $103,000 in second quarter funds, and having approximately $80,000 in the bank. Stender raised roughly $362,000, and has around $1.2 million in the bank.

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Comments

NJ 7

posted by William Honachefsky Jr

Honor , Integrity and Experience
My vote goes to Lance.

11/04/08 7:01 am

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