America's most dynamic and deeply reported political forecast.

Last Updated: November 3, 2008


Leans
Democratic
#18
NJ-3
Jim Saxton (R)
is not running for re-election
Last Week's Rank: #18

2008 Candidates

Chris Myers (R)

Defense Contractor

 

 

John Adler (D)

State Senator

About the Race

CANDIDATES: Republican U.S. Rep. Jim Saxton is retiring after 12 terms. Defense contractor Chris Myers is the Republican candidate. State Sen. John Adler is the Democratic candidate. Saxton carried the district with 58 percent in 2006. George W. Bush won the district with 51 percent in 2004.

RACE PROFILE: Adler is showing why he is one of the Democrats' top recruits this year. Through June he has pulled in close to $2 million. Through the middle of May, Myers had raised just $377,000. No matter how highly Republicans speak of Myers, that's a tough disparity to contend with in this South Jersey seat which spans much of Ocean and Burlington counties.

 

 

Race Updates

November 7, 2008 - 12:14 am — Leans Democratic — #18
With 100 percent of the precincts reporting, Adler has defeated Myers 52 percent to 48 percent.

October 30, 2008 - 12:09 am — Leans Democratic — #19

The New York Times has endorsed Adler

October 27, 2008 - 1:12 pm — Leans Democratic — #19

Adler is out with a television advertisement that aims to tie Myers to President Bush.

October 24, 2008 - 12:24 am — Leans Democratic — #14

Freedom's Watch has launched robocalls accusing Adler of supporting taxpayer-funded healthcare for illegal immigrants.

The Cherry Hill Courier-Post has endorsed Adler.

The Asbury Park Press has endorsed Myers.

October 20, 2008 - 6:11 pm — Leans Democratic — #14

CHANGE FROM TOSSUP TO LEANS DEMOCRATIC

 The New Jersey races for the 3rd and 7thcongressional districts may be statistically tied now, but Republicans would be in far better shape if they were ahead outside the margin of error. It’s hard to see how they can stave off the huge onslaught of advertising on the part of their Democratic rivals. Mark both races as Leans Democrat.

October 16, 2008 - 4:51 pm — Toss up — #9

A poll conducted for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee finds Adler leading Myers 38 percent to 34 percent. The survey of 400 likely voters, conducted Oct. 2-3, has a margin of error of 4.9 percent.

Myers has announced raising $369,000 in third quarter funds and has $287,000 in cash on hand.

October 7, 2008 - 10:13 pm — Leans Democratic — #31

A Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll finds Myers leading Adler 41 percent to 40 percent. The survey of 430 likely voters, conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 2, has a margin of error of 4.7 percent.

October 1, 2008 - 11:08 am — Leans Democratic — #42

A Zogby poll finds Myers leading Adler 39 percent to 37 percent. The survey of 400 likely voters, conducted Sept. 18-Sept. 20, has a margin of error of 4.9 percent.

Myers and Adler sparred over the Iraq war at a Sept. 29 debate.

September 26, 2008 - 9:34 pm — Leans Democratic — #42

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee began airing a television advertisement on Sept. 23 targeting Myers on the economy.

Freedom’s Watch is running a new television advertisement in the district targeting Adler

September 25, 2008 - 12:02 am — Leans Democratic — #42

President Bush fundraised for Myers on Sept. 22, PolitickerNJ.com reports.

September 15, 2008 - 6:27 pm — Likely Democratic — #53

As PolitickerNJ.com reports, a poll conducted for Myers’s campaign shows the Republican leading Adler by a 33 percent to 29 percent margin. The survey of 300 likely voters, conducted Sept. 8-Sept. 9, has a margin of error 5.7 percent.

September 15, 2008 - 11:31 am — Likely Democratic — #53

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spent $53,903 in the district between Sept. 3 and Sept. 10. The committee has spent $118,938 in the district in total.

September 15, 2008 - 10:37 am — Likely Democratic — #53

The National Republican Congressional Committee spent $16,500 in the district between Sept. 3 and Sept. 10, the committee’s first independent expenditures in the district.

September 11, 2008 - 4:52 pm — Likely Democratic — #53

As PolitickerNJ.com reports, Myers and Adler sparred over the Iraq war in a Sept. 10 debate.

September 8, 2008 - 11:23 am — Likely Democratic — #53

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spent $21,649 on independent expenditures in the district between Aug. 20 and Aug. 26. The committee has spent $21,649 in the district in total.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spent $43,386 on independent expenditures in the district between Aug. 27 and Sept. 2. The committee has spent $65,035 in the district in total.

August 12, 2008 - 2:33 pm — Likely Democratic — #53
CQPolitics has changed its outlook on the 3rd Congressional District race from "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite."

August 12, 2008 - 1:27 pm — Likely Democratic — #53
Shortly after Myers detailed his energy policy, which includes the development of solar as well as nuclear energy, Adler quickly attacked Myers for not favoring a repeal of oil industry tax breaks, according to a story in the Burlington County Times.

"I'm continually amazed that Chris Myers is such a fervent defender of big oil company interests," Saxton's campaign manager Mark Warren told the Times. "It's clear he is lock step with the Bush administration."

July 21, 2008 - 10:46 pm

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced today that it reserved $1.7 million in advertising time in the district. The purchase is part of a 51-district nationwide ad buy on the part of the committee.

July 16, 2008 - 12:52 am

Fundraising reports show Meyers taking in around $249,000, including a $50,000 loan, in second-quarter funds, and having approximately $155,000 in the bank. Adler raised roughly $495,000, and has around $1.5 million in cash on hand.

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